One game tonight in the NFL:
Betting is 51% on the Home favorite with the line moving from -7.5+103 to -6.5-102. Models are neutral on the game. Variable slightly favor New England. Public betting is neutral. I see no edge in this game at all. When the betting is split equally in the NFL on a game my methods have a tough time finding any betting edge. Its a good game to watch. I am passing
Good Luck Tonight whichever side you choose!
Another busy day on Sunday with 7 one unit plays and going 4-3. In NFL Sides we lost with Jacksonville +3 16-25, and in the NFL Totals, we went 3-1 with Phil under 48.5 losing by a half and Indy Tampa and the Giants under all covering easily. We also won our NBA play on MINN +10 108-116. NHL play on Winnipeg +147 lost 2-3.
So far today I have sent out 1 one unit play.
Another email exchange to share this time on bet sizing:
Saw today you talk about 2-3% sizing. But I think you may have mentioned something before where in football your bet sizing is higher?
Mentally I can handle 3% sizing but have been doing 2% in hockey, 2.5% in CBB and 3% in football. I know this is probably not smart, but when betting ML underdogs I tend to bet smaller just because the losing streaks can be longer.
Anyway, was wondering your thoughts on betting higher % in football if you’re the type of player who can handle the volatility?”
“Recently I had commented that the Football being higher has been changed. I recommend now the same size for all sports. The sports are now very close.
So my thought is to pick a number 2 or 3 percent and use it across the board. Then only change it if you have multiple wagers at one time. Lower your bet size for multiple wagers.”
“ok, so on weekends, throttle down to 2% perhaps? Because there tend to be more plays? (we don’t know how many you’ll be putting out per day ahead of time, since it’s a fluid situation. But weekends tend to have more plays)
“Much easier than that. It goes to unfinished bets outstanding. If you had 10 plays all of which were finished before you made you next wager you would stick with the percentage you use. It’s only when you have wagers that are made before others are finished.
If you’re using 3 percent you could move it down to 2% in these circumstances. If you’re at 2% then you could bring it down to 1.5%”
After reading this over if anyone wishes to discuss bet sizing further just drop me an email. It’s one of the most important things to grasp if your betting ever day.
Good Luck Today
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks