“So on your MLB plays obviously you are only considering home dogs (usually facing a good pitcher on the road). On your daily updates you’ll usually indicate that the other home dogs don’t meet your criteria and therefore you are passing.
I was wondering in these games which you don’t see the home dog as a good enough play, does that mean that the road favorite is then an option? I wonder what the winning % is on road favorite games where you didn’t bet the home dog?
My thinking was that if there were enough variables on a game to steer you away from one side, is that enough to steer you towards the other.”
I doubt that idea would work out. What I do in handicapping a sport is attempt to find a subset or subsets of the games that are historically profitable. Once I identify that subset I then handicap that subset. So in Baseball the subset is home dogs where the public is less then a certain percent on the home dog.
As you can see even with this method its no cakewalk. Trying to beat the books is a very tough process. Nothing easy about it. Now if you wanted to track something it would be the subset that I handicap. In other words how does the subset do overall compared to my methods. If I were doing this full time I would track this. But since this is primarily a hobby I don’t expend the time.