Tuesday morning and the market is gapping down again although only around .15% on the indexes.
Of note, USO +.62% and GLD and SLV are off this morning.
TLT is off also which has departed from the typical pattern of moving in the opposite direction of the markets. This is most likely the result of the Fed promising to get aggressive in the face of extreme uncertainty across the world.
Look what Greenspan did with Y2K to make sure the markets were not disrupted. Now you have Y2Kx1000 and the Fed wants to raise rates???
A tough one to figure out, even for those of us that are analytically inclined:)
My positions did not change yesterday, however, I am starting to acquire an interest in the long side. I still would like to see a bit more down, but I am open to a few swing longs here to test the waters. I have several on my list so perhaps today might be a day of trading. We will see.
Not much has changed overnight on the political front. It’s still complete insanity by our beloved politicians. In addition, I am afraid that if the Democrats do not start talking policy rather than obstruction and identity politics their party is doomed in 2018.
A one party system is not the way to go in a Democracy. We all know too well that both parties if left to their own ingenuity can screw things up royally! So you need a 2 party system to keep the other in check.
The Democrats, however, have been sidetracked from the party they once were and are now on a path of self-destruction with no hope in sight. Their base wants blood, and rather than doing what is best for the country they have chosen to pander to their base.
The cost of this will be enormous for the U.S. As once the Republicans get a fillibuster-proof majority in the Senate it is lights out for the Democrats. And that is the path I see them on.
All this political environment does is create uncertainty for the markets. And as I have discussed in the past, when the markets start taking this seriously we will get more than a shallow correction.
That is why my long term portfolio is well diversified to minimize damage from any turn in the markets. This is something everyone should consider at this point. It is coming in mid march and the seasonal tailwinds will soon be gone.
In addition, I have talked about the Nasdaq SPY model that triggered long on January 6th at $SPX 2173.37. $SPX is now at 2378.39. The gain on this signal is almost 10%. But we are getting very close to an exit on this trade which will not bode well for the market going forward. This has been about as reliable a method as you can get for timing markets. It is far from perfect but if you traded this method or used it as a filter our trading would improve dramatically.
I will be watching this as it is based upon weekly charts and is in jeopardy of an exit on Friday. I will keep you posted:)