Another good month in sports betting for November!!!

3:30 Update

Two games tonight in College Football:

Ohio

Western Mich

Betting is 68% on the home Fav with the line moving from -17.5 to -16.5. So from the start, we have a reverse line move favoring Ohio. Models slightly favor Ohio. Public betting favors Ohio and Variables are neutral on the game. Without variables, I will not be playing the game. There was a time when a reverse line move and models might squeak by with a profit but not anymore. I am Passing.

Colorado

Washington

Betting is 61% on the home favorite with the line moving from -7 to -8.5-105. Models are split on the game, Public betting no edge, Variables are neutral. This game is a much clearer pass than the first game tonight. I am passing.

Good Luck Tonight whichever sides you take on the games.

 

Thursday we had 2 one unit plays and went 1-1. In the NBA we had The clippers +4 and they won outright 113-94. In the NHL we had Carolina +172 and lost 1-2 in a shootout. It was looking like a 2-0 day but Boston scored with 34 seconds left in the 3rd period:(

No plays have been sent out today nor are any pending.

We finished November with a good month. The final totals:

NCAA FB 5-6

NFL Sides 3-4

NFL Totals 1-1

NBA Sides 16-12-1

NBA Totals 2-0

NHL Sides 10-14 -0.16

NCAA BB Sides 2-1

NCAA BB Totals 26-14

On spread bets, we went 55-38-1 or +13.2 Units for the month.

Then we had the NHL money line for -0.16 units.

Anytime you can get a 13 unit gain for the month is a successful one.

I had discussed modeling via and question and answer with a subscriber which I thought was instructive. We had another exchange I would like to share:

“Wow! Thank you. This is incredibly insightful knowledge. You amaze me with your brilliance and your willingness to share. I’m going to get started soon on the things you mentioned here. Thank you for pointing me in the right direction on models. I realize models are by far the least important of the three factors you use, others being variables and public betting, but it I am still thrilled with the info you provided. I’m sure I’ll have many more questions to come. Hope you don’t mind!”

My response:

“I do not mind at all. The only thing I cannot share is my variables. As I discussed these are rarely talked about and for a good reason.

The best handicappers have developed their own the hard way. Variables are the most difficult to find but are the most rewarding of all techniques.

Most handicappers will not even discuss variables.  It is something they want very few to know about. The reason is of all the factors both tangible and intangible, variables are the most predictive of EV.

There are a few that you do not even have to consider anything else. Not many though but a few.

Also when you’re done analyzing the data on the prediction tracker I would be interested in seeing what you discover. My guess is of all the models they follow you might come up with maybe 2 that are predictive when their line is >? from the betting line. In addition, I doubt it will apply to all situations.

The most profitable will probably be road dogs. Least profitable Home favorites.

It’s possible that the only subset that will show a profit will be road dogs.

Now, if you want to break it down further, which you should, you can have the results as to spread ranges. So, pick to +3, +3 to +7 etc.

The reason to do that is in some sports big dogs do not fare very well. In some they do.

I do not recall how prediction tracker has their historical data set up but if they include the line it would be easy to incorporate that into your analysis.

The more you can include in your predictive routine the better chance you have of coming up with a positive EV subset for a few of the models when the prediction is > than X.

What is nice is many of the models nowadays are very sophisticated as a result of  fantasy sports. The best are not on prediction tracker and will never be. But many on there are not far behind the best.

If you’re looking to incorporate other raw data into your routine you can also look at :

http://sabr.org/sabermetrics/data

Years ago you had to pay dearly for getting historical data as sophisticated as what is given out for free on the net.

One word of caution. Not all data is equal. When I was active analyzing outside data I found that a certain % was just bad data.

So before you incorporate outside data you should google search to see if there are any reports of bad data from that source. The last thing you want to do is go through all this work and find that the data is bad!

When I say other data into your routine I do not mean data likes pass completions, fumbles etc. I mean % bet, line moves, reverse line moves, >50% on the dog, <50% on the favorite. These are examples of other data to incorporate into your routine.

Traditional data will not help one bit. A big waste of time. I know I have wasted a lot of time sorting through that and have found none that was predictive except perhaps efficiency numbers for the teams. But even then it is a mixed bag.”

 

This is a real interesting area of handicapping and I have just touched the surface. So I welcome all questions!

Good Luck Today

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

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