One game tonight in the NBA:
Betting is 75% on the road favorite with the line moving from -5.5 even to -5.5-113. Models are neutral and variables are neutral. Other then the high % on the road favorite there is nothing else going for either side of the game. This game is a clear cut pass for me as there are simply no clues to point to either side of the game that are positive EV. Just the 75% number is not even close to enough these days to consider Toronto as a possible play. I am passing
Friday we lost our 1/2 unit play and won our Bet or Pass Setup. Minn +112 as our 1/2 unit play lost 3-9 and the Yankees +119 as our Bet or Pass Setup won 8-3.
I have been asked in the past “how can you bet on that team”. This is typically when the team is on a big losing streak or I have bet on them in the past and have lost most of the bets on them. First, let me say typically you do not find value on teams that have a win rate of over 60%. And also on pitchers that are say 10-1 with a low ERA. Sports betting just does not work that way. Value is found on teams that few people like. Better yet on teams that the public looks at and thinks the other side is a Cinch!
Value is found typically on teams that are doing poorly and on pitchers that have dismal stats. That is a general observation that is very accurate. So if you cannot bring yourself psychologically to bet on these types of teams you will have a tough time beating sports. There are exceptions , like the NBA method I have late in the season, but I can count them on one hand:)
One method to overcome this bias is after you have prepared your spreadsheet for the days handicapping delete the team names. Do it in a way that you have no idea what the team matchups are. In MLB also delete the pitchers names. So that all you have in front of you is the numbers you use in handicapping. That way you’re getting an objective view that is not distorted by your preconceived ideas about the team.
The above suggestion might seem a bit weird but it works. Give it a try.
Its similar to an instrument pilot (which I am ) who is taught that if it’s between your senses and the instruments “always” go with what your instruments are telling you. Many a pilot has flown their plane into the ground not following that advice.
For those reading this that would like access to my plays, there are two ways to get them. 1. Is a 3 day free trial by following @rick_sports my private feed. 2. Is by simply subscribing with the PayPal button on the upper right of this page.
Good Luck Today
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks