3:30 Update
One top 25 team playing tonight in college football:
Temple
#21 S. Florida
Betting is 74% on the home favorite with the line moving from -19 to -17.5. Models slightly favor Temple. Variables are neutral, public % favors Temple. In addition, we have a reverse line move on Temple. At first glance one, would think that Temple would be a play tonight. However without variables I do not wager on a game.
It used to be that a 24% road dog with a reverse line move was almost an automatic wager. But, not anymore. With the rise in the “sharp” betting you need to have much more to make a wager on a game. The easy money has been over for at least 3 years now. So I am passing on the game. Saying that, if your thinking about going with the 74% you might want to reconsider and take a pass.
Good Luck
Rick
The Market is around the even mark 30 min before the open.
Of note, Metals and Oil are getting hammered this morning with SLV off 1.5%. Biotech and TLT slightly positive.
Yellen did not disappoint yesterday, indicating the asset reduction will go on despite no indications of inflation. She also created the impression she was stumped why inflation has not started up.
Of course, the global turmoil, tourism freefall, and political chaos at home is being overlooked in whatever program she is using to figure out monetary policy.
One thing that to me is certain, come time to reappoint a Fed Chief Yellen will be gone. In addition, Cohen will not be appointed with the strong likelihood he will not even be part of the White House team.
My view is that Cohen is there simply to get the tax cuts through and once that is accomplished or fails he will be moved out of the administration.
Trump will appoint a Fed Chief that will keep interest rates low. Otherwise, no matter what happens with tax cuts, health care, and infrastructure it most likely will not make a difference. With the U.S. debt load being financed with short-term maturities a rise in the short term rate would have the potential to bankrupt the U.S.
Yellen, however, seems oblivious to it all. Now, saying that I am far from an expert in this area. So perhaps I am overlooking something. We will see:)
What is clear in the near term, however, is the idea that the Fed will be bailing out the markets is history for now. How much damage can the fed do before a change in the Fed leadership? I would suspect a lot, with the asset reduction and an almost assured rate hike by year-end.
What thing is also certain, that if I predict a substantial drop in the markets sooner or later it will come:) I have been in cautious mode during most of this last move up in the markets. Its almost embarrassing how wrong I have been the last few months. However, I do not easily embarrass as I know that trying to predict what the market will do is a fool’s errand.
One can only suggest things to consider and act accordingly. The markets are similar to playing limit poker or sports betting. One of the potential outcomes is a loss. I know that is hard to grasp but that is the fact when your gambling.
I am in daytrade mode again today and I will post my early comments and any trades on my twitter feed.
If you want to follow some of my trades along with my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. Typically I talk about the overall day expected with the markets and also give some levels on the ES and NQ for failed breakout scalping.
It’s my private twitter feed for the stock market and its free. Sports Handicapping is the subscription-based part of this site. But considering the cost of joining it’s almost free:)
Good Luck Today
RickJ
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks
