April MLB Overnight Results are in, with updated results on short put trades.

April results are now behind us in MLB and here is the monthly tally:

Overnight Sides: with additional stats (April)
20-22 + .13 (.003% ROI)
Advantage to closing line
+6.90 per game over closing line 31-8-3 (79.48%)
Top to Bottom swing to date 5.48 (+2.98/-2.50)

A few things to note:

The top to bottom swing in April was very small. Wagering on 42 games in April produced only a top to bottom swing of 5.48 units.

In addition, we broke about even with the overnight sides. But the takeaway is we beat the closing line 79.48% of the time. As long as we keep this up I suspect we will like the final tally at the end of the season. We beat the closing line by 6.90 on average per game.

The first two days of May we had 4 plays and went 2-2 for +.15 Units. The big stat is we beat the closing line in all 4 by a wide margin…. +17.75 per game!!!

In May I had my first regular-season total that lost, but these will be picking up and have been solid year in and year out. So expect more of these as we progress into the MLB season.

Monday afternoon I sent out 4 overnight MLB Side plays for today.

Moving on to my trading that I added to subscribers for no additional cost. I use Slack to send out most of my trades that I make during the trading day. I provide both my entry price and my exit price.

The best performer of all of these has been my 2-day short put sales. I typically place these on Thursday morning shortly after the market opens and they expire the next day after the close.

Since posting these I have had 302 trades with 284 winners and 18 losers. This is a 94.04% win rate. The profit factor on these trades is 3.83%

As you can see the drawdowns have been minimal.

Other categories of trades I make are Income trades consisting mostly of CEF’s that have a reasonable return and are below NAV, Mean Reversion Trades, and shorting puts in stocks I would not mind owning at a lower price.

The latter so far has been the riskiest. I manage the later trades selling calls if I happen to get the put exercised.

In addition to sending out my trades, each morning I have pre-market comments before the market opens. Here is this mornings:

”

Markets are higher this morning with IWM leading the way at +.88% The rest are hovering around the +.4% mark

Vix.x is -2.7% @CL -.36% and TLT unchanged

This is a neutral + premarket bias to me

The best six months of the year have ended and now we are in May. The next six months tends to be slightly positive at best, With the QQQ/SPY ratio still in sell mode, I would not expect much upside. The best to hope for right now is a choppy market

Unless we get a big dip most likely the best things I trade will be the income trades for awhile

They are not exciting, but they produce a steady income stream, and almost without exception have produced capital gains also

I have a number of Puts and Calls that are expiring 5/21 and until then there is not much to do on these positions.

Its very difficult if not impossible to maneuver in these before expiration date. You are paying too high a premium to try to trade before expiration

As I said in the Past, Many option sellers take the roll on losing positions. Myself, I am of the opinion its best to not roll but take delivery and then sell calls against your position

If the premiums are not there to do that, then you should consider just taking the loss

Going with the roll works out sometimes, however, when you do take a hit its usually a very big one:)

This is my opinion and a lot of options traders do not agree with this. But my view is the primary reason they go for the roll is to avoid putting up the cash to take delivery of the stock rather than maximize returns

With the shift in the tenor of the markets, that to me means that selling puts on stocks I would not mind owning needs to tighten up a lot

The 2 day put sales however will continue as is, the exposure is so short the difference should not affect these much

Another aspect of the shift is that mean reversion trades become riskier.

So, keep all this in mind in your position sizing

The 3 mo vix is holding solid, and if that breaks down I will get more defensive”

All in all there is a lot of value in RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

At only 49.00 per month, you get all the sports plays I make, in addition to my stock and option trades.

All of my records on all sports are kept current on Slack and updated daily. 100% transparency like I have been doing the last 20 years. Time certainly goes by quickly. It seems like just yesterday I started this site. And now here we are almost 20 years later.

If you wish to join us, use the PayPal dropdown menu on this site. All options have a 3-day free trial.

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

rickjshandicappingpicks.com

Twitter: rick_sports

Slack: Rickjsports

Slack: RickJInvest

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Comments

Manish Oza July 19, 2021
Reply
I think you paused my slack. I was charged $49.00 a few days ago.

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