Are the markets draining away your money?

8:00 Update

With MLB every day and some games early, I will be posting my recap early on days when there are early games.At least, I will try to.

Wednesday we went 2-1 on our 1 unit plays in MLB for +1.62 Units. Our winners were Milwaukee+121  4-3   and Colorado +141   4-3 . We lost with Atlanta +173  1-3.

Looking over today’s games there appears to be plenty of opportunity for plays if variables stay steady. But still a lot of time before games start.

Also, I am still getting emails regarding the lines to take in baseball. For purposes of the $130.00 back guarantee I am using the Pinnacle line at the time I put out the play. What you can do is go to a site that puts out the lines in a spreadsheet manner where you can pick your books you want to follow. Covers or Sbrodds are two that comes to mind. They are both free and you can setup the page in a variety of different ways. Then just put in the books that have a 10 c line. Now this is a bit tricky as almost every 10c line book increases the spread as the line goes up. So a 10c line might be -120 +110 but on the same book it could be -180 +155 . And to make it more difficult there is no uniformity in how the books spread higher priced games.

But still the fact that they are 10c books puts them as the books to follow. Then just do not take less than what you can get at most of the 10c books. Once you have it set up it should only take you a min or so to determine whether your book that you wager with has a line that is bettable.

Since we take mostly dogs, however, you should be able to wager on most of the plays that are put out. In MLB most books move the line with the action quite a bit.

If anyone needs any help in setting your sheet up just send me an email and I can walk you through it.

Also, if anyone has any questions at all let me know. I am here to not only show my plays but also to answer questions.

I was also asked about how often months like March come along. If your wagering every day and every month of the year I would say that it would be a very rare year to avoid a month like march. There is no way to avoid variance. Some poker players have tried by scrambling the deck, taking a walk, sitting out a round or two. I have seen some players get up and walk around there chair 3 times to change the run. But other then the entertainment value the only way is a systematic bet sizing approach.

When you start falling into the scrambling the deck group its time to take a long break!

Good Luck Today

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

 

We are almost done with the first week in March and the markets have had two incredible record breaking runs already this year. If you’re looking at the daily charts it almost defies credibility. So the best way to keep things in proper perspective is to take a look at the weekly charts and the monthly charts.

You can do this with any ETF or stock for that matter. When trying to figure out the significance of any lower time frame chart its imperative you look at higher time frames. Otherwise it’s very easy to misinterpret the lower time frame chart.

If you’re looking at 5 min charts for your trading then 15 and 60 min charts should be set up right next to it.

The market right now is in neutral territory and it’s been awhile since we have hit extremes to either side of the market. So mean reversion trades have been out of the picture for the last few weeks. Right now it’s primarily short-term momentum trades combined with shorter-term swing trades.

So far I have been able to trade very successfully with these short term trades. Let us see if that can continue.

I had a few questions about my SSO trade yesterday and why I got out so early. I a good question which I do not have time to answer in detail right now. But let me just say in trading you do not evaluate the trades based on hindsight. You evaluate them on your entry, goal, and overall execution. Saying that the trade worked out fine. But If I remember I will comment on it in more detail a bit later.

Right now the market is off .5% 20 min before the open. Gap trades today are not good enough for me to venture in this morning. But I do have a few stocks on my short-term radar.

As a reminder, we are rapidly approaching May 1st. What the adage sells in May is not one to dismiss out of hand. My guess is things get very ugly between my 1 and October 31. But take that for what it is …..A guess!

You can follow my trades on my private twitter feed which is now free!  @rickjswings

It’s free for now and until I can figure out how to put more hours in the day will remain free. Almost all my time is spent handicapping now. With very little time to posting detail trading that would merit charging anyone for!

Good Luck Today

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

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