Let’s start out the day with this statement “The sky is falling”:)
Ok got that out of the way.
The stock market gaping up this morning with the Nasdaq leading the way at +1/2%
Metals and Financials strong, while TLT and Oil off slightly.
To me, this looks like a positive pre-market bias. I would not be looking to trade a gap fill today.
Not much happened overnight.
The most interesting news going on right now is in U.S. politics.
A few weeks ago it looked like Kavanaugh was a cinch to get the nomination, and there was nothing that the Dems could do to stop it.
The betting odds had reached 20 to 1 if you wanted to bet against his nomination.
But Democrats, the ingenious group that they are, brought out and 11th-hour sexual assault claim that allegedly occurred over 35 years ago.
You have to admit that the Democrats know their opposition. Because as soon as that hit, the Republicans were in disarray.
The Republicans had no idea how to handle it, while the Democrats sat back laughing at the turmoil they caused, and now actually have the chance to delay the nomination.
It would be very easy to prevent things like this occurring, by having a rule that 11th-hour allegations are thrown out as a matter of course, regardless of which party is trying it.
But that would be too easy. After all, who does not love chaos in D.C.
The betting line almost immediately went to even money on the nomination. This morning it sits at 3-1 in favor of the nomination going through.
Most likely that is an optimistic number. The wait right now is for Monday, where supposedly if the accuser does not show up for testimony under oath, there will be an immediate vote to get the nomination out of committee.
I imagine that before Monday, or even on Monday, there will be new allegations. Or perhaps a promise that she will testify in another week.
But rest assured there is more to come in this drama. The Democrats did not risk going to prison to just stop and give in.
So if you are looking to bet this proposition I would say take the 3 to 1. As at the very least you will have the opportunity to lay it off at even money again when the next scare hits.
This entire drama displays the difference between the Democrats and the Republicans. The Democrats will do whatever it takes to win, regardless of the collateral damage.
The Republicans, just do not want to make waves. They know if they do their gravy train might be in jeopardy. That is why you see them reacting to this delay tactic in this manner.
Now you may be wondering, if you are naive, how anyone could destroy a good person and his family for political gain? The answer is very simple. They are a member of the human race. This has been going on ever since civilization started.
It is survival of the fittest, and right now the Republicans are far from the fittest in a knockdown street fight like this.
If I had to put a line out on Kavanaugh’s nomination today by 10/31st I would say 5 to 1 against.
Which leads me to one more interesting observation. One of the biggest criticisms about Trump being the Republican nominee for President was he was not a conservative.
So the speculation went, among longtime conservative he could not be trusted to place conservative judges on the Supreme court.
Shapiro went as far as to suggest Trump might even put liberal judges on the Supreme Court. But of course, Shapiro has been consistently wrong about Trump at every turn.
But now we have Gorsuch and then a nominee like Kavanaugh. Not even the textbook conservatives would do a better job in these two.
But the problem as it turns out was not Trump. It was the Conservatives that did not have the fortitude to move ahead with this appointment. They caved at the first sign of trouble.
Very interesting to see this little twist. I am surprised that conservative commentators have not picked up on this.
Now that brings me back to the opening sentence. ” The sky is falling”
Despite all the chaos we see around us the Stock Market makes new highs daily now. Can you imagine being a mean reversion trader on the short side in this market?
The lesson is to trade price. The news is interesting. But, how the stock reacts to the news is what is important.
In a bull market, bad news tends to be good news. And in a bear market, good news is bad news.
That is the perverse logic of trading the stock market. You really have to embrace that before you can have any chance. Otherwise, you will find yourself locked up in some institution before its over:)
I will be looking for a swing long this morning. If I find it, I will try to share it on my private twitter feed.
If you want to follow some of my trades along with my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. Typically I talk about the overall day expected with the markets and also give some levels on the ES and NQ for failed breakout scalping.
It’s my private twitter feed for the stock market and its free. Sports Handicapping is the subscription-based part of this site. But considering the cost of joining it’s almost free:)
Good Luck Today
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks