Monday we had two plays winning our 1 unit play and losing our 1/2 Unit Play. Minn +133 was a winner and St Louis +111 lost 7-12.
Everything again is this evening. I will be out most of the afternoon so wanted to get this out before I left.
Not much else to say as I am active in the markets today. But tomorrow is a big day with FMOC on deck and after the close today Apple reports earnings. So two big event in the next 24 hours. Should be interesting. Typically a decent trade is to go in the opposite direction of the movement of the market just prior to the news. It does not work every time of course but enough to consider the trade. So we have had a small correction going into tomorrow. I am long and might consider adding. But I am going to wait and see. In addition Apple might be a big sell off and then reversal after FMOC. Lots of possibilities!
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks
Day 1 of the Fed meeting today and tomorrow we get to hear the Fed’s wisdom or at least what they want us to hear. Anymore it appears like they project a view based upon what the stock market is doing. When they consider the market frothy they talk tough and hawkish but when it looks like the bottom is falling out they get dovish. Is that the way this is supposed to work? Just a fleeting thought:)
In any event, I am both long and short this market but rapidly having a bias to the long side. I made several index trade longs yesterday both in SPY and QQQ. SPY was a mean reversion trade and QQQ was a system trade that typically shows a great risk reward. We will see. I plan on taking more and more of these system trades this year as they have been proven both in back testing and real time. They still do not rule out variance however so position sizing is key.
Let me share with you a secret to gambling whether its the market or sports betting. Position sizing while important from the aspect of controlling variance. Is equally as important to keep the human side of you in check. What typically happens to the “gambler” is he oversized his wagers both as a result of his optimism of the wager but also because of his “subconscious quest to lose”. So when you oversize what happens most of the time is the wagering moves against you and the loss becomes so painful you exit the trade or wagers. And of course your “subconscious quest to lose” is satisfied. And in many this cycle repeats and repeats.
So proper position or bet sizing is important for a 3rd reason. To break the cycle that your subconscious mind is playing out. After all, if your wager or position size is correct then these psychological tricks are harder to manifest themselves. But of course, it’s not as simple as that. But it’s a step in the right direction.
When you gamble whether in the markets , sports, or poker daily it’s essential you recognise this aspect of human nature and objectively evaluate where you are with this. If you are able to do that then you have the satisfaction of knowing you in a group of a select few that are able to intellectualize this process. Most go through life and have no idea whatsoever what pushes their buttons.
That’s my tip for today. Give it some thought and whatever you do, do not dismiss it out of hand. As I view it, it’s an absolute truth!
You can follow my trades for free at my private feed @rickjswings. I post almost all of my trades shortly after I make them there. In addition, my spreadsheets are available for all to see both in handicapping and sports. The links are on this site.
Good Luck Today
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks