It is a tough one to call. Although with the brand new Bannon Trump feud I lean toward calling it for U.S. Politics🙂
Just when you thought things could not get any crazier you have Bannon going off the rails. In addition, this new book coming out should propel the Political Soap Opera to new heights.
But in spite of the dysfunctional characters in U.S. politics, the market just keeps propelling higher!
Today another gap up, I know its boring, unless you’re short of course. If you’re a mean reversion trader who has shorted this bull and go stubborn, your most likely out of money now.
Markets are on the plus side almost .5% an hour before the open.
Of note, Financials, biotech, are on the plus side, while metals are mixed, oil flat, dollar down slightly and TLT off.
Note that DM is off 3.5% premarket. That typically is a warning sign but I have no idea what is causing that or even if the quote is correct. Sometimes these premarket quotes are off and then even out on the open.
I am still long XNCR and GLD. TUR I exited, almost at the top of the move, and am waiting for a reentry signal. I typically look for these at the 9 day EMA or the 50 day SMA.
I need a break and reversal back through the moving average at these levels. I watch the daily, 240 min, and the 60 min charts for this.
One immediate issue coming up is the budget and DACA. Trump has said no DACA without a wall and end to chain migration. The freedom caucus has said no DACA period, and the Democrats have said DACA with no restrictions.
This is most likely going to be another scare for the markets as we approach the budget deadline. How it works itself out, I have little idea right now as the sides are so polarized on this.
I think there is a higher probability of a shutdown this time as the Freedom Caucus seems pretty firm on their position. Trump will bend as will the Dems. But the Freedom Caucus I doubt will change their position.
But, its something to watch, and it should be interesting to see how the dynamics play out. That, of course, is if anyone has time to pay attention to this with the daily soap opera we are seeing unfold.
I will not be around this morning for the open. I have to leave very early and will be back mid-morning.
Watch the breadth for clues. Its one of the best indicators you will find to see if you have a headwind or tailwind.
If you want to follow some of my trades along with my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. Typically I talk about the overall day expected with the markets and also give some levels on the ES and NQ for failed breakout scalping.
It’s my private twitter feed for the stock market and its free. Sports Handicapping is the subscription-based part of this site. But considering the cost of joining it’s almost free:)
Good Luck Today
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks