Things slowed up Thursday with only 1 play but it won. We had the knicks +17 and they covered 90-103.
Today so far I have sent out 1 one unit play.
A few instructive emails to share today:
“Quick question on bet sizing…how often should I be adjusting my sizing of my bets for example if my bankroll is 100,000 and I am using the 2% rule and betting $2000 a game…. say I win a couple and on Thursday im +8000 should I be sizing my bet to $2160 because now my bankroll is 108,000? This goes for when I am losing as well say I lose a couple and my bank roll is at 94,000 should I be betting 1880?”
“I adjust my bet size after every finished wager. Sometimes one or two times a day on Saturdays. And yes whatever your bankroll size is before the wager it’s 2% of that amount.”
I thought I’d pick your brain on the last two plays you’ve put out in the NBA. Both had big live moves after star players were announced out, is this something you’ve backtested where the public overreacts too much to the announcement or would have these been plays even without the line move. Have to admit betting these isn’t easy 🙂
Thanks for your thoughts,”
“In the NBA one of the strongest plays historically has been to bet a team the 1st game a star player is out. Whats good about this is it is very logical. To get into the NBA you have to be the best of the best. It’s not like the NFL where you see a limited pool to choose different positions from. In the NBA you have 10s of thousands of very good basketball players trying to get these positions.
Typically during a season you do not get 100% all of the time from these players. The intensity needed during a game is just too much to ask that every player gives 100% each game. But, when a key player is out, especially the first game, players get focused and do put out 100%. They come together to make up for the loss. So the end result is your usually going to get 100% from everyone playing that day.
This play has not lost a lot of value over the years. Now I do not blindly take these. If the public numbers do not confirm or my models show the movement in the line is not significant enough I pass on the play.”
There should be several more plays tonight and I will update later this afternoon.
Good Luck Today
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks