Below for today is what I sent out to subscribers on the breakdown for the NBA via email to those that wish it:
|Oklahoma City||Okl C|
The thing to note about the above is the Variables that are positive on 3 of the 4 home teams. Typically there
is value in the first game of the series when the home team has been on a rest. Now to me, this does not make the games a
play as it appears that this has been adjusted a bit on the lines. But it is something to keep in mind when handicapping these
Saturday we had no plays. We also had 5 “Big move Games” with the line, close line and diff as follows:
Angels -104 -120 +.16
Colorado +111 +115 -.04
Milw +125 -102 +.27
Pitt +228 +226 +.02
Cleve -145 -162 +.17
“Big Move Games” continue being a very strong predictor as to line movement going 4-1 on Saturday for moves.
Season to date for moves is 37-12-1 for an average move of .09625.
Another interesting development on “Big Move Games” is their record if you wager on them when I put them out is now 26-24 for +1.60 Units!!! That is a 3.2% ROI.
It will be interesting to see not only if these turn out to be positive EV this season but also by how much. I am going to track them on my google sheet with the plays. In addition, I will keep track of how they do by month. Theoretically, the lines get tougher as we move along in MLB.
There is another addition I am going to add to my game breakdowns on occasion.
Oftentimes in going through handicapping the games, I see something of interest that is significant if you are doing some handicapping on your own or if you have an interest in unique ideas.
Today is one of those days that I will be discussing a bit today’s NBA games. I will write up today on my site for the NBA just to give subscribers an idea of what it is, in case a few more of you wish to be added to that email list.
In my humble opinion, everyone should be getting these emails that are getting the plays as I am going to continue looking for unique opportunities and how they reflect value in these game breakdowns.
I received an email the other day asking about the best approach to list pitchers in the games I put out. The idea is that in many instances I am fading the top pitchers. I always list both pitchers to go for the bet to be good.
The question is whether it would be better to just list the team starter or just make the game an action game as things can never get worse for you in the event the chalk pitcher for the opposing team does not go.
I understand the concept. Many books adjust the lines when a pitcher is scratched where you cannot get an advantage with that strategy. In other words, you get the adjusted line. So that there is no advantage to be gained by this.
I agree, that if that rule was not in place it would be a no-brainer to use that strategy. But alas the books have figured that loophole out as they do most:)
Good Luck Today
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks