Sunday we had 1 play in MLB and it lost. Phil +162 lost 4-6.
We also had 4 big move games:
Pitt +156 +158 -.02
W. Sox +129 +138 -.09
Cleveland -197 -210 +.13
San Fran -119 -130 +.11
So 2-2 for line movement with +.24 on the upside and -.11 on the downside.
That leaves us with a record in predicting line moves at 39-14-1 with an average move of +.1312.
If you had an account on Matchbook, middles would be very easy right now.
Some things to note:
1 Plays are -5.68
2. Leans are +10.72
3. Betting all big move games would put you at +1.16
So, for now, plays are lagging:) But sometimes that it the way sports betting works. Let’s see where we come out at the end of the season.
In thinking about leans you should think of them as the 1/2 unit plays we made last season that was a complete disaster. But there is one important difference. I added a screen to the leans that so far has resulted in fantastic results as you can see.
This season is the first time I have used this screen and the results have been amazing. The problem in using them with plays is that I like to get the plays out ASAP before the line move if possible. Whereas the leans I wait until at least an hour before game time if not closer.
So it is something to keep a watch on. When you consider we have a lot of information to digest in MLB, Big Line Moves leans, plays it is important to come up with something in advance and stick to it.
Myself I just bet the plays. And then at the end of the season, I adjust for the next season. Otherwise, you can find yourself zigzagging your way out of a profit.
More and more subscribers are adding the email on the breakdown of the games. This is where you will get the leans. Only plays right now are sent out via twitter. So I recommend adding the email reports as this is part of your subscription.
If anyone has any questions let me know via email
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks.