Markets dropping, Short put trades, Hydroxychoroquine links, media weakens immune system, updated political odds , My thoughts for a Friday
A monster rally the last few days but this morning the markets are gapping down almost 3%. This is normal, and now we will see if the last few days was a bull rally in a bear market or not.
Eyes are on the House, and of course, it’s going to be a bumpy road. A voice vote which they planned on doing was so much in doubt that members are flying into DC this morning to get enough votes to pass the bill.
Our system is broken beyond repair at this point. You could do away with the legislative branch, stick with the executive branch, judiciary and the states and have a better run government at this point.
I think a lot of this early drop in the markets is reflective of the uncertainty of what is occurring in the House. Right now you can get 4 to 1 that the bill does not pass today. I think for a long shot it would not be a bad wager. You cannot even consider laying the 4 to 1.
Yesterday I placed 5 short put trades, all 5 expire today and all 5 have enough protection it would take a much larger downdraft to have to adjust any of these. All of the trades had a 30% downside protection. All had an annualized return of over 200%.
I will be looking this morning for a few more trades. With the markets gaping down like this, I might be able to find several more decent short put sales that expire at the close today.
I am sending these out to all of my sports handicapping subscribers. In as much as their subscriptions are on hold, everyone is getting them for free that wants them. If you have an interest just send me an email and I will tell you how to get them, [email protected]
One of the most concerning things that has come up lately is a few Democrat Governors signing emergency orders precluding Hydroxychoroquine to be prescribed for coronavirus treatment, off label?
This flys in the face of overwhelming evidence that this in combination with Azithromycin is the treatment of first choice at this time for treatment of coronavirus:
When this is said and done, these Governors should be prosecuted for negligent homicide. This is unacceptable to interfere with doctors’ ability to prescribe off label medications.
In addition to all the whining from these governors about the overcrowding of hospitals, what better way to alleviate this problem than the use of drugs that have been shown to have worked. The only thing missing is a large scientific double-blind study. But consider the time and also the low risk of these drugs it is a no brainer.
My suggestion also is to take Zinc every day. It has been proven to boost the immune system. I am taking 30 MG daily. Again a no-risk method, that may have some benefit. Keeping your immune system strong is very important.
This leads me to the next topic the media-induced hysteria. This has caused untold stress among the population. And as stress increases the immune system becomes weakened. In reality, the Fake news media is harming the immune systems of an entire nation when it needs a strong immune system the most. My thought is that it should be a crime to disseminate false information about the conditions on the ground by the media. Penalties should be a minimum of 10 years in prison.
That would stop this, and force journalist to double-check their sources. And if it’s made up, like much is, they are toast.
Markets are opening soon so let’s get to the political odds then I have to go:
Biden 77/23 – 7 Pts (dropping fast)
Sanders 6/94 +2 Pts
Clinton 4/96 -1 Pt
Cuomo 6/94 +1 Pt
Biden is dropping. I told a friend that getting over 4 to 1 looked good a few days ago, and now we are down to 7 to 2. I still think fading Biden has some value.
Dem VP Nomination:
Harris 29/71 No Change
Klobuchar 27/73 No Change
Abrams 9/91 -3 Pt
Warren 7/93 -2 Pt
Masto 15/85 New Entrant
Whitmer: 8/92 +3 Pts
I do not have any opinion at all on these. Harris, however, would be a mistake. Biden already has California. It would be a waste of a VP pick. Also when a new name pops on the list, you should pay attention.
Trump 49/51 + 2 Pt ( Right where I made my wager on Trump)
Biden 41/59 – 3 Pts
Trump pulling back ahead as he should be right now.
Control of the Presidency: Dems 50/50 -3 Pts
Again I believe the value is in the Republicans
Control of the House:
70/30 Democrats: -5 Pts( I took 3 to 1)
I like the Republicans here. I rate it a tossup whether they regain the House.
Although the better wager is to bet against each of the “dirty 30”
Control of the Senate:
61/39 in favor of the Republicans + 6 Pts
Republicans back on the move here.
Odds of a recession during Trump’s first term: 85/15 +1 Pts my wager taking 4 to 1
Then numbers I see this weekend still to me make it close whether the U.S. will fall into a recession. Getting 4 to 1 gives me a nice cushion on the wager.
One wager I am watching for is Collins vs Loeffler. I want to get down on Collins. I liked him before Loeffler imploded with her stock trades, but now the price might be too high. Anything close to even money would be a gift.
A new one I am watching that just popped up:
When will the House pass the CARES Act:
March 27th 84/16 +74 Pts
Getting over 4 to 1 seems reasonable. But the value is slim.
That’s it for today, Let’s see if this rally can continue tomorrow.
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks