Indexes neutral, A Holiday present to America from the Scrooges in the House, Event risk in the markets, Updated political odds. My thoughts for a Thursday Morning
The Indexes are hovering around the 0 markets this morning and hour before the open. TLT likewise, Crude slightly higher and $Vix.X is +3.40%. This is a slightly negative premarket bias. Watch Vix and TLT for clues during the next hour and first 30 min after the open.
We are in the best time of the year, along with the best time during the best time of the year:) Seasonally it is a solid tailwind. The only scrooges around are the House Democrats. The Holiday present they plan on giving Americans is one big fat impeachment.
In a normal world, after the IG report came out, all impeachment proceedings in the House would have come to a screeching halt. Gears would have shifted to an investigation into the FBI and the CIA as to how this all became possible. An investigation into a Presidential campaign and a sitting President on a hoax. On lies. On Falsification of documents to perpetuate the hoax.
That is in a normal world. But the U.S. has long past being normal. The House does not miss a beat. It matters not that the Special Counsel was called on a hoax. It matters not that lives have been ruined, 40 million and counting of taxpayer dollars have been spent, that they have divided America into tribes at this point, that the media has become a propaganda machine. Nothing matters to the mob. They are no different then the old-time lynch mobs that stormed the jail to lynch an innocent man.
That is what politics has come down to. It’s not about Truth and Justice. Its the exact opposite. This has got to change for America to survive as a free country.
Amazingly the markets have blown this off as they know the House is a rogue entity that in no way represents America at this point. And that the U.S. Senate will quickly end this inquisition that took place in the House. I assure you if that were not a certainty, the market would be off 2000 points this morning. Instead, we are making new highs every week. The House has become an irrelevant entity, and they did it to themselves.
So, the question you have to ask as a trader is the event risk still present on the political front. The answer is of course. Lawfare will not stop with its lawsuits. The people that want to destroy what the U.S. stands for will not magically quit. So, as Bannon said, every day is going to be a battle. He was correct, and it will continue that way. So no event risk is still there.
But, that does not mean you should avoid the markets, it just means you have to pay attention to the risks. That does mean listening to Cable News:) It means listening to people that are honest brokers. Bartiromo would be a good start. Strassel from the WSJ another. There are honest investigative reporting being done. Just not from the people you historically went for information. They have become propagandists. Why? That is for another day.
Bartiromo is on every morning on Fox Business. It’s very early but it’s worth getting into the show from the very beginning. Strassel you can find on YouTube with her reporting, and her columns in the WSJ. You listen to those two and you are off to a good start every day.
I have on several swing trades right now. I will be looking to add a few more for the next 4 week season trend.
Let’s take a look at the political odds now:
Trump impeached by the end of 2019: 84/16 39 Pts
Trump impeached by the end of his 1st term: 93/7 +14 Pts ( I expect this to happen)
Senate convicts Trump in 1st Term: 12/88 -1 Pt (This is the one to watch) A new low
Trump to get the Republican nomination: 84/16 +4 Pts (Another one to watch)
U.S. Presidential winner:
Trump: 45/52 + 1 Pts
Warren: 9/91 -1 Pts
Biden: 19/81 +5 Pt
Buttigieg 10/90 – 3 Pts
Sanders 15/85 +5 Pts
Bloomberg 6/94 – 2 Pts
Clinton 6/94 +2 Pt
Giuliani will not be indicted before 12/31/20 44/56 +15 Pts I laid 38/62
The odds getting close to 2 to 1 he would be indicted, and now back to almost even money. I suspect this will drift higher. I have a profit right now but am looking for at least 20% before I think about laying this one off.
The odds of impeachment have skyrocketed. The IG report comes out proving the entire Russia investigation was a fraud, and the screams for blood get higher. This is a mob detached from reality. They care not about the guilt or innocence, they want blood. This is what mob behavior looks like. But as the odds of impeachment skyrocket, the risk of a conviction in the Senate makes new lows. In addition, the odds of indictments while not posted, in my judgment get higher every day.
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Have a great day trading:)
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks