Updated political odds, with my thoughts on how recent events have changed the landscape for political wagering
A lot has happened since my last post, Crazy Democrat Debate last night, Stone sentenced, Bolton, admits his comments were a publicity stunt. So let’s take a look at the lines and how they have changed.
Since my last post, I made two wagers. Both on the same bet. I bet against Sanders getting the Democrat nomination. My avg paid on the wager is 53/47. The line has moved against me, but I see no way the establishment is going to let him have the nomination.
It will end up being a brokered convention and again he will get the shaft. At least I am betting that way:)
The Dem nomination odds are stacking up as follows:
Aside from wagering against Sanders, I think getting 19 to 1 on Clinton is a decent wager. Once they get to a brokered convention anything can happen. She turned down any thought of being VP. Its a longshot but you are getting a nice price. Another decent value wager is getting 4 to 1 on Bloomberg.
You could bet on both and most likely win one of them. I see no way that Sanders gets the nomination. The Democrats know that Trump wins 48 states if Sanders heads the ticket.
The Presidential winner odds are:
About the same as the Dem nomination with Trump into the mix. I think right now the best value is on the Dem nomination.
Control of the House after 2020
61/39 in favor of the Dems. This has come down from 5 to 2. The value is pretty much gone on this wager, however, I plan on wagering against the “dirty 30” across the board. They will all be incumbents, so most likely the odds will be even money to perhaps getting plus odds. I cannot see ending up behind when the smoke clears. At the worst half will lose. And at the best close to a clean sweep.
I think this is the best value of all heading into 2020.
Control of the Senate after 2020
72/30 in favor of the Republicans. This seems about right. I do not like either side of this wager.
Another wager I will be looking at is whether Graham wins the SC primary. The price will be sky-high, and SC is less than happy with him. I will likely have a small wager that Graham gets knocked off in the Republican primary.
Collins has no primary opponent and Maine is a tough state to handicap. So there is no wager there.
I would like to see a line come out on whether Romney finishes his term. Utah is on the warpath, and I could foresee something happening on that one. But until a line comes out it makes for interesting speculation.
That about covers it:) I am open to questions via email or skype.
You can follow the political odds at predictit.org. Predictit.org
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks