NFL Week 2 Comments, 2 new “dirty 30 fades” , some political advice. My thoughts for a Sunday morning
On Saturday we had an easy time of it in college football. Liberty +15 won the game 30-24 and Abilene Christian +8.5 +105 covered 13-17. That brings us to 4-1 Season to Date in college football for +2.95 Units.
In the NFL after week 1 we are 1-1 on plays for -.20 units. We have one play so far today I sent out to subscribers.
Last week my Westgate top 5 picks went 2-3. In the All Spread Contest, picking every game against the spread I went 6-10:( So after a >55% picks AGS last season I am off to a slow start this season.
I have sent out my all spread contest picks to subscribers.
As I indicated last week for the first time in a long time I did not enter the Westgate contest. The uncertainty surrounding professional sports was the deciding factor. Once things get back to normal (whatever that is) I will enter the contest again.
My 5 Picks this week using the Westgate lines:
After the first 3 things got a lot tougher. The last one Minn was a crapshoot. As I had nothing really to choose from the way I handicap the games. So I picked what I thought was the best of the worst:)
The Westgate top 5 last week started out 4-1 ATS. Historically it has been profitable to fade the top 5.
This week the Westgate top 5 is:
I am fading one of the top 5 and not on any of the rest.
The bottom 5 this week is:
I am on one of the bottom 5 this week.
For those following my political plays I added two wagers this week to my “dirty 30” wager:
These are the House races that Trump carried in 2016. That brings the number wagered to 14 of the 30. My plan is to wager on all 30 as the lines are posted.
I am expecting to do no worse than 50% with a net line of +2 to 1 avg on all wagers. If I am correct that is a nice positive EV.
I have been told I am letting my emotions cloud my judgment 🙂 I seriously doubt that. I have always been objective when it comes to any kind of wagering. But who knows, we are all subject to influences some of which we are unaware of. Time will tell:)
As I have said before I have no dog in this fight. I have my opinions, but, am well aware of the brutal nature of politics in the U.S. So I try to stay focused on what is important. Staying safe and my family safe. It is not healthy to invest too much emotional energy in a blood sport like politics. Let the useful idiots do that.
Stay focused and balanced. That is the key, my friends.
One way to test yourself is if you either 1. Think Trump is a god or 2. Trump is a demon from hell, you have lost your perspective. He is neither. He has his good points and bad points as does everyone. Do not let the media and the politicians suck you into their nightmare.
I have seen family and friends succumb to this, and it is not a pretty sight. If you have learned anything over the last 20 years I have been posting on this site, you should have learned there is no black and white. When a large group is trying to tell you something is true, it is probably not true. Always consider the contrarian side, as usual, you will be right more often than not.
I want to give you some examples because I feel this is an important point:
I have a good friend that is an avid Trump hater. He is obsessed with his hatred of Trump. Of all the poker players I have run into over the years there are but a handful I consider friends and he is one of them.
So, needless to say, we do not talk politics:) But I did mention to him that HCQ was the way to go if you happen to catch COVID. I spent 30 years as a medical negligence attorney and one of my skills is medical research. I came to that conclusion long ago. It is a no brainer. I won’t go into my reasoning but if anyone wants to know just email me.
To make a long story short, his reply was he would not talk anything Drumph recommended. That my friends is peak TDS.
I will leave it at that, but there are many more examples. This is one I thought many of you might find humorous.
I will give an update soon on my political wagers and my thoughts on the upcoming election. In addition, there is a new line up on the Supreme court pick.
Good Luck Today
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks