Breakdown of tonights Cleveland Jets game

Monday, September 16th, 2019         
TimeGm#(-) TeamScore  OpenerCRISPincle Model edge Variable Edge Public % Edge70 
16-Sep Cleveland   2½   -6.5-114  -6.5-110  
5:15p NY Jets   4445+2½-101  No EdgeStrong EdgeAvg Edge30

I sit 2-2 in the Westgate Contest this weekend and need Cleveland -2.5 to put me at 5-5 after week 2. We ended up 3-1 on our football picks for the weekend. Oakland never had a chance. 

Tonight is a tough one. Whenever you get a starting quarterback out and the replacement is pretty much an unknown it’s hard to wager on the game. I have heard the line move is too much and I have seen some good bettors come in on Cleveland also. Myself I am staying away from the game. No reason to bet it tonight with the quarterback situation what it is. Saying that you cannot take Cleveland with 72% of the betting on them. Even if they blow the jets out, in hindsight it is still not a good wager. Sometimes it takes a lot of will power to stay away from what seems to be the obvious. 

But the only way you win in the NFL, in the long run, is to be a contrarian. If you go with the public you will end up like the public. Busted.

So I am passing on tonight’s game.

I received an email I would like to share:”

Regarding the Oakland/KC game, sometimes you gotta step back from the “numbers” and ask yourself; can this realistically/logically happen?.

Based on simply how overwhelmingly talented KC is, Oakland really never had a chance, to keep the game close, or, much less, to win.

Just my 2 cents worth.

(P.S. – New client and happy overall, so far.)”

Now I am not posting this to embarrass anyone, and there is no way it could as I am not naming anyone. But it is instructional. And as always I like to point out on occasion emails that are instructional.

In sports handicapping, there are a number of givens. #1 The public is the chump #2 If you find yourself with the public then you are doing something wrong #3 the name of the team is irrelevant, its the numbers
We all have some kind of bias when it comes to teams, myself included.

That is why a number of years ago I just forget who the team is. It does not concern me. It’s only the numbers I look at that determines my plays. 

Now, there are going to be winners and there will be losers. But another given is that among all the participants in this endeavor the smartest of all are the bookmakers. They do not put out lines to give money away. So when they put KC out at -7, especially knowing everyone and their brother will be betting KC, the line is not going to be that far off.

So when people tell me, how could you make a bet like that? KC vs Oakland what a cinch. Well, the line makers thought the fair line was -7. That is good enough for me. There are very few handicappers let alone the public that can analyze the line better than the books. In all my years I have run into less than a handful of professional gamblers that had that ability. 

It is human nature to think the way the public thinks. You will have to fight that your entire betting life. But if you do not win that fight you cannot win betting sports. You can take that to the bank:)

Now you can learn the hard way like I have over the many years I have been betting, or you can take advantage of taking some advice. And I know many will still think the public is the way to go on occasion:) Its human nature.

Good Luck today


RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

Skype: riccja

Leave a Comment

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

Contact Us

We're not around right now. But you can send us an email and we'll get back to you, asap.

Not readable? Change text. captcha txt
Rickj's Handicapping Picks
Sign up now for our  newsletter. Includes handicapping tips

NFL Subscriber Plays are 24-7-1  77.41% !!!  2 day Stock Put sales  are making new equity highs weekly!!!

RickJ's Handicapping Picks  The latest in positive EV handicapping Techniques Overnight Plays in MLB are sent out around 3 to 4 PM PST the day before Come join us for a fun and profitable Pro Sports season!!!  
Subcribe  now. 2023 is shaping up to be a banner year for us.

Positive EV Handicapping

Do you know the important clues that help determine which side has +EV?
  • Learn about Reverse Line Moves and how they apply to each sport
  • Learn about being a contrarian and using public % numbers to get an edge
  • Learn about the seasons within a season that all sports have
  • Learn key numbers in all sports

Sign up to get updates that will help you with your sports handicapping!