|Monday, September 16th, 2019|
|Time||Gm#||(-) Team||Score||Opener||CRIS||Pincle||Model edge||Variable Edge||Public % Edge||70|
|5:15p||NY Jets||44||45||+2½-101||No Edge||Strong Edge||Avg Edge||30|
I sit 2-2 in the Westgate Contest this weekend and need Cleveland -2.5 to put me at 5-5 after week 2. We ended up 3-1 on our football picks for the weekend. Oakland never had a chance.
Tonight is a tough one. Whenever you get a starting quarterback out and the replacement is pretty much an unknown it’s hard to wager on the game. I have heard the line move is too much and I have seen some good bettors come in on Cleveland also. Myself I am staying away from the game. No reason to bet it tonight with the quarterback situation what it is. Saying that you cannot take Cleveland with 72% of the betting on them. Even if they blow the jets out, in hindsight it is still not a good wager. Sometimes it takes a lot of will power to stay away from what seems to be the obvious.
But the only way you win in the NFL, in the long run, is to be a contrarian. If you go with the public you will end up like the public. Busted.
So I am passing on tonight’s game.
I received an email I would like to share:”
Regarding the Oakland/KC game, sometimes you gotta step back from the “numbers” and ask yourself; can this realistically/logically happen?.
Based on simply how overwhelmingly talented KC is, Oakland really never had a chance, to keep the game close, or, much less, to win.
Just my 2 cents worth.
(P.S. – New client and happy overall, so far.)”
Now I am not posting this to embarrass anyone, and there is no way it could as I am not naming anyone. But it is instructional. And as always I like to point out on occasion emails that are instructional.
In sports handicapping, there are a number of givens. #1 The public is the chump #2 If you find yourself with the public then you are doing something wrong #3 the name of the team is irrelevant, its the numbers
We all have some kind of bias when it comes to teams, myself included.
That is why a number of years ago I just forget who the team is. It does not concern me. It’s only the numbers I look at that determines my plays.
Now, there are going to be winners and there will be losers. But another given is that among all the participants in this endeavor the smartest of all are the bookmakers. They do not put out lines to give money away. So when they put KC out at -7, especially knowing everyone and their brother will be betting KC, the line is not going to be that far off.
So when people tell me, how could you make a bet like that? KC vs Oakland what a cinch. Well, the line makers thought the fair line was -7. That is good enough for me. There are very few handicappers let alone the public that can analyze the line better than the books. In all my years I have run into less than a handful of professional gamblers that had that ability.
It is human nature to think the way the public thinks. You will have to fight that your entire betting life. But if you do not win that fight you cannot win betting sports. You can take that to the bank:)
Now you can learn the hard way like I have over the many years I have been betting, or you can take advantage of taking some advice. And I know many will still think the public is the way to go on occasion:) Its human nature.
Good Luck today
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks