Does not look like this market is going to derail right now. But I still stick by my opinion that after the middle of this month the chances are much higher for either a pullback, larger than we have seen lately or an end to the bull.
Take that with a grain of salt, as market timers are a dime a dozen:) With most having terrible track records.
Premarket, it looks like the market is going to gap up 1/5th of a percent.
Of interest, the metals are off over 1/2%, financials are up about 1/5 to 1/2%, TLT is off 1/4%.
Overall, a mixed premarket.
I started with a few swing trades yesterday that I shared on my private twitter feed(no charge). These will have a short leash but the setups were very compelling from a mean reversion point of view.
If you took these trades, I will keep you updated and also notify when I exit the trades.
Things have settled down a bit both on the home front and geopolitical front. The Russia Trump collusion spin is rapidly dissipating. Trump is slowly but surely getting his team in place. And the democrats are starting to face the reality of a Trump presidency for at least until 2020.
However, that does not mean there will not be bumps for Trump. Remember, there is big money, Democrats, mainstream media and never Trumpers in the republican party that will still do whatever it takes to undermine his presidency. This I do not expect to change and in addition, I expect a solid run by either Kasich or someone else to prevent Trump from getting the Republican nomination in 2020.
So this will without a doubt create uncertainty for the markets which translates into volatility.
I have been looking over the odds on various political wagers and see some value on a few. I will share these soon.
Let me say, as a general rule, take Trump’s poll number and add 10% to get a more accurate reading. You can also do that with the public opinion polls on any of Trump’s policies. These polls are intentionally skewed for the most part as they were before the 2016 election. Huffington post gave Clinton a 99% chance of winning:)
So, when polls are skewed to that degree, it creates value if you have outs to bet on various scenarios. And not 1 to 3% value like in MLB:) But huge pockets of value.
Those are my thoughts on a Tuesday morning.
If you want to follow some of my trades along with my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. Typically I talk about the overall day expected with the markets and also give some levels on the ES and NQ for failed breakout scalping.
It’s my private twitter feed for the stock market and its free. Sports Handicapping is the subscription-based part of this site. But considering the cost of joining it’s almost free:)
Good Luck Today
RickJ
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks
