Monday we had 3 plays and went 2-1.
We had a 1 unit play on the Minn +206 that lost 4-6. We almost pulled it off with Minn leading 4-3 into the 8th. But they could not hang on.
There were 2 overnights both winning with Baltimore +115 5-0 and Miami +136 winning 4-0. Two nice shutouts for us.
Today we have so far 6 plays.
I talk from time to time about political odds and one thing that is certain they bounce around quite a bit. Most likely due to the lack of liquidity and how tough it is to get a handle on the political landscape these days.
The vote this afternoon on moving the health care bill to the floor looks like it will go through. The odds of it passing today is 5 to 2 in favor. Now that just means the procedural aspect of it moves forward. The odds of a vote on a bill by August 5th is even money right now.
There are so many conflicting interest groups on this that it is hard to imagine that anything will be passed. The only reason that this procedural vote will go through is that the Republicans voted numerous times to take down Obamacare, knowing a veto was at hand.
Then they had the misfortune (and many view it that way) to get a President in that will sign the repeal. So as in poker, their bluff was called. And what do you know, it was a bluff:)
I see no value today in wagering on the health care issue. If you want some value bet against flake winning the Republican primary in Arizona. You can get 8 to 1. I have no doubt you will be able to lay it off at 3 to 1 or less about a month before the primary.
Another interesting wager is whether Sessions will be AG on Sept 1st of this year. The odds are 11 to 10 that he will not be Sounds about right to me.
Good Luck Today
RickJ
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks
