One game tonight in the NFL:
Betting is 49% on the Home Favorite with the line moving from -2.5-105 to -3-108. Many books you have to lay extra juice to lay the 3. My models are split on the game as are the variables I look at. Public betting is also split evenly on the game. That leads me to the move on the bears with the betting split evenly.
I could make an argument for either side here. For Phil you have a big move to 3 which is the strongest number in the NFL. On the other hand the move indicates to me that its “sharp betting ” not the public that is behind this move. That would make sense after the bears dismal performance last week.
So take your pick!!! I am passing on the game. I just do not see an edge on either side.
Good Luck whichever side you choose.
We came back to earth after a blazing start to the football season. 1-3-1 in College football brings our 2016 record to 7-5-1. Our 1-2 NFL weekend brings our 2016 NFL Record to 3-2. Hilton picks went 2-3 this weekend bring me to 6-4.
Sunday was another busy day with 3 one unit plays and 2 1/2 unit plays. In the NFL Cleveland +4.5 lost 20-25 and the Rams +6 won 9-3. Our two 1/2 unit plays in the NFL were Pitt Under 48.5 and won 24-16 and Washington Under 47 losing 27-23.
We had a one unit play in MLB with Atlanta +134 winning 6-2.
We also had 5 big move games:
Dodgers -125 (Middle)
White sox +110
With the closing line:
Dodgers -128 (Middle)
White sox +109
One big our way and one big against us. The other 3 hovered around the price.
Today so far I have sent out two 1 unit plays along with 3 big move games.
I also had an exchange with a subscriber that I feel is very instructive I would like to share:
I really do appreciate your hard work. When I began following you I knew absolutely nothing about sports betting. I probably still don’t know anything but at least I know who not to bet on, i.e. public favorites and dogs getting 2.5
I’m not trying to sound like a Monday morning quarterback but I’m curious why Cleveland didn’t become a play until nearly game time. I believe the game opened at 6.5 and got as high as 7 before closing at 4 with Balt being a big public favorite.
Thanks for everything.”
“I needed the public number to be below 30%. It was not clear until game time …it was that close. I typically do not fade big moves but 6 to 4.5 was not big enough to keep me away and it did not involve a key number.
So end result we lost by 1/2 a pt. it was looking pretty good at 20 to 0:)
Also there are some games that I know are going to fall into the parameters for a play a day ahead of time. Rams was one of those games. These public numbers are very important in the NFL. So have to be careful guessing whether the number will met.
I can guess pretty good in MLB and the % numbers are not as tight in most cases in that aport.
But in the long run in the NFL its best to be conservative on the public number. You will far more losses in the long run if you make an uncertain wager in the NFL.
His Response back:
“That makes perfect sense.
I’m assuming that there are additional parameters besides public betting based on the Buffalo play Thursday night with public betting at 36%.
Please don’t think I’m bringing up the Buffalo game because they lost. I find your approach in general to both sports and the stock markets to be quite interesting.
One more unrelated question. If the public betting is split with your methodology do you ever have plays? Can variables and models produce a play by itself?
“Some Late season NBA favorites is the only one i can think of where public betting is irrelevant. And some overs on Colorado in august in MLB.
Thats about it. Also +2.5 the first few weeks in the NFL has value or I can say is far from a negative consideration. Once you get past the first several weeks though I try to steer away but not always.
Buffalo is completely different. You have a favorite -1 along with a substantial move from the opener. Non public favorites in the NFL are completely different.
Actually buffalo -1 was by far the strongest play of the three this weekend!
One more thing. With my approach you always have to consider being fooled by randomness. The % requirements not only produce value but also make a great filter to minimize that risk.
It does not eliminate the risk completely but goes a long way.”
When I mentioned that as another benefit for subscribers was that they could ask away with the idea of learning a bit about handicapping techniques this is exactly what I had in mind. This is a value added part of this handicapping service which if used properly sets itself apart from the other services out there. I know of none that offer this.
We are now done with week 2 and if you have been on the fence regarding subscribing the subscription amount in a pittance compared to the 4 figures that other sites charge and just for 1 sport! Take advantage of it now!!! Just take a look under the pay-pal menu and pick the subscription option of your choice. All have a 3 day free trial.
Good Luck Today
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks