Can you quantify the unquantifiable? It is essential to trade the markets!

The market seems to be taking a breather this morning with the indexes unchanged. Although QQQ is the exception with a nice gain and hour before the open

Of note, Oil up strong as are the metals. Financials tanking and TLT up strong.

A mixed bag premarket but to me looks like a downward bias.

The markets are neutral short term and slightly bearish medium term.

I plan on the same strategy I have had the last few days looking for a short term day swing trade.

On my radar this morning is CLX and PFE. CLX looks like it is gapping up almost 1% premarket, however, PFE is hovering just above even.

I like to trade these on a red to green trade. These two, however, do not look promising. Another red to green trade that looks good to me is VOD. That has the best chance at being a trade.

However, It’s going to depend on the how breath looks early in the trading for the markets.

Nothing new on the news front. I have covered the issue in depth the last few days. The new health care bill that was introduced by the Republicans looks like it is dead in the water already. You have to wonder what McConnell is up to?  He should know by now what will fly and what will not. Yet, everything they put forth from the go has enough objections to kill the bill. Not only that they cannot even get the votes to have the health care bill up for discussion on the floor.

I suspect once the market realizes there will be no health care bill we will at least see a pullback.

I have been waving the red-flag now for months and the market continues to make new highs:) That is the way with fools like me that predict market timing!

Maybe I should say overly optimistic as opposed to a fool. Sounds much better. Very few can get the timing right on picking turning points. To me it’s a matter of % as opposed to 100%. Very similar to handicapping sports. You will never have a wager that is 100%. It’s just a question of having an EV.

Today not much to look for. Unless we get another leak early in the afternoon. I am sure they have a dozen or so more of these leaks that are timed to do the most damage.

So the markets always have that as a backdrop in the wings to upset things.

The political odds have not changed much overnight, so my comments on political wagers are the same.

Over the years I have found that one of my strengths is quantifying the unquantifiable. I have a knack for viewing events and coming up with pretty accurate probabilities of various scenarios.

Now, there are many that are incredible at quantifying the quantifiable. They have minds that can figure out mathematical problems at blazing speeds. My mind is above average for that but nowhere near some of the people I have fun into over the years.

On the other hand, these same people when given something that is not math oriented have a tough time making a quantifiable estimate on the odds of the event.

I say this primarily to let you understand that there are two different skill sets between the two. And very few have the skill sets on nonquantifiable events.

If you want to follow some of my trades along with my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. Typically I talk about the overall day expected with the markets and also give some levels on the ES and NQ for failed breakout scalping.

It’s my private twitter feed for the stock market and its free. Sports Handicapping is the subscription-based part of this site. But considering the cost of joining it’s almost free:)

Good Luck Today


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