Can we get a follow through to the +450 day in the stock market today?

A big day yesterday for the stock market to start out the week and the important thing is that the gap held into the close.

This morning we are gaping down about .4%. Of note Metals and TLT slightly positive, Oil off about 1% with the dollar off .4% in premarket.

A neutral to slightly negative bias to me.

Amazingly I did not get any exit triggers on my mean reversion trades yesterday. A reversal and close stronger this morning would almost certainly trigger exits in all but UPS.

On the home front, it is still immigration and infrastructure with some espionage thrown into the mix.

John LeCarre could not have come up with what we are seeing played out in the U.S. right now. One day there will be a movie about all that has gone on. It is complex to say the least with a lot of cross currents, from political, geopolitical, and a dash of treason thrown into the mix.

How all this plays out will not only determine the course of the U.S. for years to come but also as a stock trader will affect the markets both near term and long term.

There is a lot of opinions that the volatility is caused in part by a rise in rates combined with an increase in debt. I, however, do not buy that. One reason is that the projection of GPD is beyond all expectations while the projects that the current administration have only started kicking in.

The projections are in my opinion primarily because of the substantial cutting of regulations. They were strangling business.

The 2nd reason is this drop started a day after the Nunez memo came out. If the Nunez memo is true, along with the Grassley memo it has substantial implications for a lot of people. And there is more to come.

Now the question is whether they are factually true. And sitting here in my office typing this, analyzing stocks and ball games, there is no way to tell, except for using reason and common sense.

I will leave it at that as its a polarizing topic and we all have a substantial amount of incomplete information. You throw each persons predisposition ideology and it’s almost impossible to discern let alone discuss.

Let’s leave it that volatility will be high and unpredictable as long as the special counsel overhang combined with the severe political dysfunction remains. That should be for quite awhile.

Beware, however, the drop we have seen last week is a pittance compared to what will occur if charges are brought against this sitting president to remove him from office. Most likely the dow will be off 2000 before you even think about exiting.

So we will see:)

I will be around for questions on Skype this morning. My username there is riccja.

If you want to follow some of my trades along with my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. Typically I talk about the overall day expected with the markets and also give some levels on the ES and NQ for failed breakout scalping.

It’s my private twitter feed for the stock market and its free. Sports Handicapping is the subscription-based part of this site. But considering the cost of joining it’s almost free:)

Good Luck Today


RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

Skype: riccja

Leave a Comment

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

Contact Us

We're not around right now. But you can send us an email and we'll get back to you, asap.

Not readable? Change text. captcha txt
Rickj's Handicapping Picks
Sign up now for our  newsletter. Includes handicapping tips

MLB Season is free for 2024!!

RickJ's Handicapping Picks  The latest in positive EV handicapping Techniques Overnight Plays in MLB are sent out around 3 to 4 PM PST the day before Come join us for a fun and profitable Pro Sports season!!!  
Sign up now for the service. Its free until NCAA FB starts. 

Positive EV Handicapping

Do you know the important clues that help determine which side has +EV?
  • Learn about Reverse Line Moves and how they apply to each sport
  • Learn about being a contrarian and using public % numbers to get an edge
  • Learn about the seasons within a season that all sports have
  • Learn key numbers in all sports

Sign up to get updates that will help you with your sports handicapping!