A big day yesterday for the stock market to start out the week and the important thing is that the gap held into the close.
This morning we are gaping down about .4%. Of note Metals and TLT slightly positive, Oil off about 1% with the dollar off .4% in premarket.
A neutral to slightly negative bias to me.
Amazingly I did not get any exit triggers on my mean reversion trades yesterday. A reversal and close stronger this morning would almost certainly trigger exits in all but UPS.
On the home front, it is still immigration and infrastructure with some espionage thrown into the mix.
John LeCarre could not have come up with what we are seeing played out in the U.S. right now. One day there will be a movie about all that has gone on. It is complex to say the least with a lot of cross currents, from political, geopolitical, and a dash of treason thrown into the mix.
How all this plays out will not only determine the course of the U.S. for years to come but also as a stock trader will affect the markets both near term and long term.
There is a lot of opinions that the volatility is caused in part by a rise in rates combined with an increase in debt. I, however, do not buy that. One reason is that the projection of GPD is beyond all expectations while the projects that the current administration have only started kicking in.
The projections are in my opinion primarily because of the substantial cutting of regulations. They were strangling business.
The 2nd reason is this drop started a day after the Nunez memo came out. If the Nunez memo is true, along with the Grassley memo it has substantial implications for a lot of people. And there is more to come.
Now the question is whether they are factually true. And sitting here in my office typing this, analyzing stocks and ball games, there is no way to tell, except for using reason and common sense.
I will leave it at that as its a polarizing topic and we all have a substantial amount of incomplete information. You throw each persons predisposition ideology and it’s almost impossible to discern let alone discuss.
Let’s leave it that volatility will be high and unpredictable as long as the special counsel overhang combined with the severe political dysfunction remains. That should be for quite awhile.
Beware, however, the drop we have seen last week is a pittance compared to what will occur if charges are brought against this sitting president to remove him from office. Most likely the dow will be off 2000 before you even think about exiting.
So we will see:)
I will be around for questions on Skype this morning. My username there is riccja.
If you want to follow some of my trades along with my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. Typically I talk about the overall day expected with the markets and also give some levels on the ES and NQ for failed breakout scalping.
It’s my private twitter feed for the stock market and its free. Sports Handicapping is the subscription-based part of this site. But considering the cost of joining it’s almost free:)
Good Luck Today
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