Every day is a wild one now for the stock market. Yesterday was no exception with the markets ending up on their lows of the day.
This morning the market is gaping up from .2 to .5%. But of course, with the swing, we are seeing that means virtually nothing.
Of note, TLT down, IBB down Commodities strong, U.S. dollar off a bit.
Nothing else is markedly one way or another. To me, its a tossup today from the premarket activity. From a very short-term view, there is a long side bias.
The spending bill passed the Senate. a 2-year deal that spends, spends and then spends some more.
What will happen in the House remains to be seen?
One thing people are overlooking regarding the increased spending is if the tax cuts and spending get the U.S. growth rate well over 3% the increased spending will not be that significant. If however, growth stays stagnant it will be a disaster.
But really, the government has very little choice. Debt is so high the only chance is to get the U.S. growth rate increased to very high levels. If you combine that with the U.S. being energy independent and a net exporter of oil things could actually get positive regarding the increased debt.
Although, there is a big if. The government has to smartly allocate the increased revenues from the higher growth rate.
It’s a real tightrope. One that most likely our esteemed lawmakers will not be able to pull off.
I view it as very similar to when you’re driving an automobile in busy traffic. You pull out into the street and your passenger yells at you to stop. You do, and a car runs into you:)
That’s what I see likely to happen here. You cannot take a high-risk strategy and pull up in midstream without severe consequences. Now you do not have to have faith that Trump will putt it off.
But Mneuchin and Cohn are the brightest in the business. If they are allowed to operate the chances are high that they will pull the U.S. out of the debt burden with positive results for the country.
Should be interesting. But, follow what Mneuchin and Cohn are doing and what they say. They are both honest and ethical. So what they say about the economy is most likely a no spin accurate depiction of what is occurring.
I am long SSO( a 3/4 position) and also NTAP. It would take a large move to the upside today to trigger an exit.
Also, I added UPS yesterday as a mean reversion trade.
With the gap up this morning, I doubt I will add to the trades. But if we get a significant pullback intraday I might add another trade.
2 stocks I am looking at this morning are WYN and ROP.
Do not get complacent in this market until the special counsel is long gone. There are going to be many more scares coming up that shock this market.
If the consensus is correct that the special counsel is manufacturing an obstruction case against the president without definitive proof of Russia collusion this market is heading south fast.
I am not convinced that will be the outcome, but its enough of a possibility that you need to be aware of it.
If you want a no spin reporting of the events regarding the special counsel and the issues surrounding it, you can do no better than saraacarter.com. She is one of the best investigative journalists in the U.S. today.
It will give you a reality-based understanding of what is actually happening behind the scenes that you will not get from virtually any other mainstream media source.
If you want to follow some of my trades along with my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. Typically I talk about the overall day expected with the markets and also give some levels on the ES and NQ for failed breakout scalping.
It’s my private twitter feed for the stock market and its free. Sports Handicapping is the subscription-based part of this site. But considering the cost of joining it’s almost free:)
Good Luck Today
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks