If you are a trader and you have no position sizing or discipline you have most likely given up trading by now. Not only that, you have sworn it off for the rest of your life:)
It was easy when the market was going straight up. Everyone was a genius. Easy money.
But its times like this that separate the real traders from the bunch.
Gambling is the same no matter what type of gambling you are doing. Sports betting, one of my favorites, requires the same discipline as swing trading the markets.
So it is easy for me to carry it over and apply it.
Poker, similar but requires other skills in addition. Plus the knowledge that unless you are playing at high limits, the house is going to get most of the money available at the poker table. The rest is cut up among the sharks. And at 20-40 and below there is not a lot to be cut up.
Even so, money management and discipline are essential. Forget about all the -EV forms of gambling. They are for the chumps. You wager on those consistently there is something the matter with your thought process!
Now back to the stock market. If you have had discipline and sized your trades correctly you most likely have a loss the last month. With swing you are seeing now there are not many swing trader that are going to show a profit during this period.
Accept it, because these times come around often enough that you need to weather through them.
I made two-day trades yesterday for a quick 1,000 profit on a low price stock. In addition, I still have my mean reversion trade in SPY via SSO which this morning is sitting at 105.64 right about where I entered a few days ago.
The stock market is set to gap up this morning almost 3/4% with TLT off 1/2%. The dollar is strong as are financials. Oil is unchanged.
This is a positive pre-market bias.
But remember, the stock market gapped higher than this yesterday and close strongly down. We need to see some sort of bottoming pattern before this is over.
Unless the FED changes course or we get a China Trade deal. Then that could trigger a V shape bottom. Both seem remote in the near future, however.
I am going to spare everyone a discussion of politics both, U.S. and Geopolitical this morning. If things get significant I will mention it, but things are so insane now it’s not even worth commenting in detail on. Many in the public have lost their minds, and some are not going to get them back. The media and our politicians have really done the public a great disservice with their political blood fights.
But it is what it is. The U.S. has it too good for many many years. Now we get a taste of what other countries experience for years on end. As Dylon put it “the times they are a changing” Hopefully it will pass. We will see.
The big event is midterms. A week away. I will have an update today or tomorrow on my betting odds page for political events. Seems like a good time to make a post:)
I will be looking for a day trade today similar to yesterday. Also, I have a stock on my radar for a mean reversion trade. So it could be an active morning.
If you want to follow some of my trades along with my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. Typically I talk about the overall day expected with the markets and also give some levels on the ES and NQ for failed breakout scalping.
It’s my private twitter feed for the stock market and its free. Sports Handicapping is the subscription-based part of this site. But considering the cost of joining it’s almost free:)
Good Luck Today
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks