Be Careful if your Short this Market

Be Careful if your Short this Market

5:00 Update

A top 25 matchup tonight at 6:00

#25 California

#18 Arizona

Betting is 49% on the Home Favorite with the line moving from -6 to -7-102.  Models and variables are neutral on the game. But as you can see we have less than 50% public betting on the Home Favorite along with the line moving contrary to the betting. So as you know if you have been following this site we have a red flag that means to take a good look at Arizona on the game. Granted however at 49% we are in the area of really 50 50 but you should still be wary if your considering California. For me the game is a pass and I am passing on the game.

 

2:10 Update

Another busy day on Wednesday with 5 plays and a setup. We went 2-3 on our plays and to be honest, it felt like 0-5. The two wins were real sqeekers:) We also had a setup and it lost.

You can now follow the results on the spreadsheet link that breaks down the plays and results daily in addition to the monthly summaries. If anyone else has any suggestions on how to improve on the transparency or any other part of this site please do not hesitate to let me know.

Our winners yesterday were Arkansas +1.5 and Washington St +12.5 . Losing games were Minn +10, TCU +11 and Mississippi St +5.

Looking at the games tonight it looks like its shaping up to be another busy night. I will update 5 to 15 min before game times. In addition I will try to comment on top 25 matchups as I have been day today. We have had some very interesting situations on these matchups and I can imagine there will be many more.

So far to date now in college hoops we have 201 plays this season and our at a 58.20% pace. That’s a pretty solid record as its very difficult to break the 60% barrier for the season. But let’s see if we can get that done:) I certainly am open to giving it a go!

I have gotten quite a few emails regarding the service and how the subscription works. I know there are many people on the fence about joining us for tournament time. All I can say is give it a try. I do not think you will be disappointed:) Just select the paypal button on the upper right and I can have you signed into my private twitter feed within minuites.

Good luck tonight

RickJ

 

 

Yes I know the market is overbought right now. I know it has been for awhile now. But yesterdays action was not bearish. What we have is a consolidation and that usually means another move higher.

Saying that the Nasdaq relative strenght on the weekly charts is very close to triggering this week. Two more days and Its very likely to trigger. That is my all clear sign. Of course the 200 day MA is still a bit away but we have passed the 50 day MA with no trouble at all. So keep an eye on the nasdaq relative strength.

Looking at the market short term there still is no way to get around we are overbought. Any trade I make today will be a very short term trade. The setup will have to be just perfect as either side right now has pretty substantial risks.

I put in a long trade in TLT yesterday as a system trade I take in bonds when I feel the time is right. Bonds are extremely oversold right now so It seemed right to take the trade especially with the markets short term overbought.

Not much news on the horizon except the usual political comedy that goes on every day. Today will be no different with Romney getting ready to give a speach trashing Trump. Does anyone think the Republican party might be in disarray:)

Now I am sure everyone is wondering if I am in a good after the college hoop games last night. I had a 2-3 night and honestly it felt like an 0-5 night. The two wins did not come easily! But I was very satisfied this morning to check the Washington State score and see that I had won the game as they were down by 15 late in the game.

Enough rambling this morning. Markets are 15 min before the open and are slightly lower. I am expecting another consolidation day today but if we get a blast higher I almost will certainly start my mean reversion short. We will see.

 

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

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