A down premarket for the Stock Market this morning, with all indexes off over .5%.
TLT positive by 1/4%, Biotech, Oil, and financials off almost 1%.
This to me is a negative premarket bias. I would expect more downside after the open.
Its all about trade this morning for the stock market as China has reacted harshly to the White House trade talks. It looks like China is not the E.U. and they are prepared to not roll over.
How this turns out is up in the air. China has a lot vested in their trade advantage. In the meantime, they have devalued their currency to make up for the tariffs the U.S. has placed.
I suspect in the end China and the U.S. come up with a trade agreement. But the rhetoric will remain heated until they finally reach an agreement. China operates like Trump. Heated rhetoric backed up by actions.
It should be interesting to see how it all plays out for the stock market. Myself, with Ross at the helm I am confident that a reasonable win-win trade deal will be obtained. It’s just a question of when not if.
That is what is affecting the markets this morning. An additional factor to keep in mind is the Special Counsel situation is heating up a bit. Trump has taken to Twitter to suggest that Sessions should end what he calls a witchhunt. And more importantly, The SC has indicated that he would accept no restrictions on his interview with the President.
I suspect that his attorneys with advise him not to talk to the SC and that we will likely see a subpoena to testify in front of the Grand Jury.
At that point, there will be an appeal that will go at some point to the Supreme Court.
Which leads me to this. The Supreme Court is now 4-4. This means that there is a possibility that the Supreme Court will not be able to overrule a lower court decision forcing the President to testify.
So you have the Cavenaugh hearings coming up shortly but will they be soon enough to get the court to 5-4 before this issue gets there.
That means to me that the President’s attorneys will try to stretch this out until Cavenaugh is confirmed. It will be a race as both sides know the stakes here.
As a complicating factor, many of the Republicans in the Senate would like to see the President gone. So that creates the possibility that the Cavenaugh vote might either go down for the above reason or be postponed until after the midterms so the court remains 4-4.
Perhaps I am being a bit too conspiratorial here but in my weird mind, it all seems logical:) Scary I know!
Once we get further down this road the stock market will react and it will be to the downside. Combine that with the possibility of a shutdown if Congress does not fund the wall and it will be popcorn time.
I hope your beginning to realize the importance of staying abreast of the news and a good analysis to help in your swing trading.
It’s not all downside news, however. If the U.S. reaches a trade agreement with China or even Mexico that will boost the market.
As I mentioned yesterday I expected more downside and we are getting it. How low we go today will give us an indication of how low we might go on this move.
I doubt I will make any swing trades this morning into this tape, however, if I do I will post them on my private twitter feed @rickjswings. Its free so come join us. I typically make some comments shortly after the market opens.
If you want to follow some of my trades along with my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. Typically I talk about the overall day expected with the markets and also give some levels on the ES and NQ for failed breakout scalping.
It’s my private twitter feed for the stock market and its free. Sports Handicapping is the subscription-based part of this site. But considering the cost of joining it’s almost free:)
Good Luck Today
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks