A Thursday night NFL Game:
Betting is 65% on the home favorite with the line moving from -3-128 to -3+109. Models favor Tenn, Variables are neutral, and public betting favors Jacksonville. This game is about as clear cut a pass as one can get. No clues at all as to where the value might be on this game. I am passing
You know its basketball when you lose a +5.5 in overtime:( Dallas was our only play last night and it lost 121-130 in OT.
Today a fuller schedule but so far I have sent out no plays today. There is a 1 unit play pending for Saturday.
Week 7 of the NFL along with Week 8 of college football begins tonight. I am sitting at 21-14 in the Hilton NFL Super Contest most likely somewhere around 100 out of 1900. For one unit plays in the NFL I am at 9-4 and for one unit plays in college football I am sitting at 15-12.
I received the following email regarding bet sizing for football:
I saw you wrote the other day you are betting 4x or 5x on NFL, I guess I am trying to come up with a systematic way to size my bets lets say my bankroll is 100k for sports so basically I am betting 2,000 a game when you say you are betting 4x or 5x in NFL does that mean when you say a unit you are betting 8k to 10k in NFL? Also what about half units, this year I bet 1800 a game in baseball should I be betting 1800 a game in nfl or 1800 x 4? I am starting to have problems getting the money down I want to after getting cut of in a couple spots, so it would be great if you could explain this a little more as far as sizing the bets to get optimal EV.”
“Actually, at this point, I would consider just bet sizing everything the same. All sports now have a positive EV for now.
I did the 5x when MLB, NBA, and NHL were break even at best.
Or you could set aside two wagering bankrolls. One for football and another for the other sports. The difficulty is handling variance once your bet sizing gets too large.
In any event, if you are going to consider the 4x or 5x for football the separate bankroll would be a necessity to manage things. And then the considerations for picking bankroll size and the % all are reconsidered.”
This is one of those things where after I wrote it a week ago I regret sending it out. The main reason is if you bet size 5x for football you are going to be exposing yourself to a large variance if you are using your original bankroll size. That is why I have added that if you’re going to do that you need to have 2 separate bankrolls.
As far as running out of books. That is a common problem if you’re a positive EV bettor. It’s similar to counting cards at blackjack. Once they know you are a positive EV player your not welcome to play anymore unless of course, you want to play out of a continuous shoe.
But its one of those things where you need to have multiple outs and spread your action over them rather than hitting one book with everything.
I also received a direct message regarding NHL lines and whether the lines would be ok to play as they were not the same as mine.
The best way to figure that out is to go to a site where that have 10 to 20 books and their lines. Then separate the books that have 10 c lines. If you cannot get better than the worst 10c line you’re going to have to pass on the game. Many times, however, the books that have 20c lines pump up the favorite so you can often get the same as a 10c line and in rare instances better than a 10c line.
In any event that is how you should decided whether to play a game where the line is a bit different than mine. I am using Pinnacles line for my plays.
I hope that answers these two issues satisfactorily. There is some football tonight so I should be back commenting on a few games later this afternoon.
Good Luck Today
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks