One game tonight in the NFL:
Betting is 54% on the dog with the line moving from -3-115 to -3.5-101. That’s a big move off of -3 for only 46% of the betting on KC. My models are split as are the variables on the game. Public betting slightly favors KC but that is offset and more by the fact the line has moved off -3. This game is about as clear a pass as you can find in the NFL and I am passing.
Good Luck Tonight whichever side you decide on.
Wednesday we had 4 plays and went 2-2. In college hoops we went 2-1 with Davidson and Buffalo covering and Nebraska losing, In the NHL we had Carolina +150 and lost 5-6 that went through OT and a shootout.
Today so far I have sent out 2 one unit plays.
Things should be picking up now in college hoops. The sides take awhile to kick in for anything reliable. But it’s not going to be like November totals. November totals are almost too easy if there is anything like that in betting sports!
After a +13 unit month, last month we have been wandering around just below break even for this month. Through the first week we are off -2.5 units.
So far the NBA has been moving around even as has the NHL. It will be interesting to see how and when we break out to the upside:)
I received the following email I feel is instructive:
I’m confused about how you go about calculating EV for a sports wager. When I’m playing blackjack my EV is easy to calculate based on the true count. In poker, I can come up with an EV based on my hand and my opponents range.
But I don’t understand how you can come up with a precise EV for a sports wager. I get how you can come up with what you think are +EV plays but how do you assign a specific number. For example in football models and variables along with the line suggest that a play might be +EV but are you able to come up with a specific number?
Also as far as EV goes in poker or blackjack it’s always going to be the same from year to year assuming the rules haven’t changed. But in sports betting isn’t the EV going to be in a state of flux because the variables and models will change over time? Variables which were good 3 years ago might not work as well.
“There are no exact numbers. I could give you some of them but they would not be accurate.
Backtesting does produce a number as to what your edge is on a wager. It is something however that has such a wide amount in practice that it is not worth considering.
One way to figure out, however, is to go back over the years and see what my ROI is in the various sports. You can start with this season and backtrack from there
Betting sports is not like playing out of a 2 deck shoe in blackjack where it’s easy to determine your edge. Because you have the human factor an analysis of that would make it very difficult.
As an example. Monday night home dogs years ago had an edge of over 10% for a number of years. But that edge slowly went down to where now there really is no edge at all. In blackjack, you do not have that situation except where they start adding decks, putting the burn card closer to the middle, or finally a continuous shuffle machine.
That is really the best I can explain it”
“Your explanation makes perfect sense.
I’m assuming because EV is difficult to quantify than betting different amounts for the same sport is a bad strategy unless the better is super sophisticated?”
“Yes. Just use the 2 to 3 % of you betting bankroll for bet sizing on each wager. Then if you say have multiple wagers at the same time you can reduce the bet size also ”
One housekeeping item. I have included in the backup SMS an additional backup by using also the email address. Verizon is hit and miss now for SMS. Where I have had access to email I have added that in also. If anyone is not getting the backup SMS and want to be on the list just send me an email and I will add you. It’s always good to have multiple means of getting the plays. You never know when twitter is going to start having problems again also.
We are getting ready for bowl season to start in college football. We have had a decent season this year going 25-19-1 on sides and 1-0 on totals. That is a 57.77% win rate. I will take that every year:)
For those of you wishing to get on board with us for the Bowl games just take a look at the PayPal menu and pick the subscription of your choice. All have a 3-day free trial. The subscription entitles you to all the plays for all the sports for the period you subscribe to.
Good Luck Today
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks