One last top 25 matchup tonight:
# 8 Oregon
Betting is 73 % on Oregon with the line moving from -1 to -2. Models and Variables are neutral. Public betting does not give any guidance here except that over the long haul taking sides where 73% is on them is a losing proposition. I am passing on the game.
Another top 25 game coming up
#7 North Carolina
Betting is 63% on N Car with line moving from -1.5 to -2.5. Variables slightly favor N Carolina models are neutral….betting give no guidance A pass for me
Another top 25 matchup coming up:
#9 W Virginia
Betting is 73% on Kansas with the line moving from -4 to -5 and is -5.5 in many spots. Models are neutral. Variables split. This game is as close to a tossup as I can see on the line. I am passing. If your considering Kansas good luck with 73% of the betting on them!
We have a top 25 matchup coming up :
#2 Mich State
Betting is 66% on Mich st and the line has just started moving from -6 to -6-110. I suspect its going higher. Variables slightly favor Maryland. Models are Neutral. Betting does not give much of a clue as to the right side. I am passing on the game. If you like Maryland I would wait until 6.5 at least.
We are in the end game of conference college hoop tournaments and then comes what I feel is the most exciting time in sports. Nothing comes close as far as I am concerned to the NCAA College Hoop Tournament. Even as methodical as I am I get enthusiastic watching the games. It has everything you would ask for in any sport. So take advantage of this time of the year and enjoy the games.
We went 2-2 yesterday on our plays winning with Baylor +7.5 in a miracle finish and winning with W. Virginia -1.5 in another tight one. Our two losing games were Alabama +13.5 and Seattle +11.5. Neither were close.
We had 9 setups in college hoops and they went 2-7. The totals were 2-6. I think commenting on the total setups is very instructive.
There is not much in the way of setups that have been more consistent in winning then conference tournament totals. Year after year they have produced winning numbers. Yet this season they have crashed and burned. If I would of put these out this season as plays I would have to leave the country:)
But here is a lesson. That when you have a method that is pure handicapping, that relies in no way on public sentiment you are exposing yourself to huge downswings. You can trick yourself into believing a positive EV situation exists and of course, that can be reinforced by Variance. It is funny Variance as it can work both ways. I have seen very poor poker players stay afloat much longer then you would think they could as a result of positive variance.
So back to handicapping. It’s that fooled by randomness thing again. If you are among the 1/10 of 1% of handicappers that can figure out positive EV based on the fundamental analysis of the players and coaches my hat off to you. Thinking it over that number might be high:)
The beauty of incorporating the betting numbers and line movements in relation to the numbers is that they give you an objective insight and clues where the value might be. Its far from 100% but you only need over 52.2% to be profitable. If you are getting a -105 line it is less than that.
What tends to happen when you come up with handicapping situations that leave that analysis out is your going to run into variables that seem to be predictive but only are predictive because there will always be patterns that are predictive on past data but do not work in real time.
The % number and line movement certainly can have that problem also but the logical nature of the analysis tends to in my mind make it a reasonable assumption that it is not random.
The postseason conference tournament totals is a great example. And that is exactly why I am not using them for plays. I have run into this many times before and it is a tricky thing to figure out but the conference tournaments totals are much different than the totals we did bet in the games before conference time. Like night and day!
It’s not too late to get on board for the NCAA Tournament. And if you’re a subscriber on day 1 of baseball you have qualified for the 1st step of a money back guarantee. Read the details next to this post.
Good Luck Today
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks