The Stock Market after gaping down yesterday made a dramatic reversal to the upside shrugging off the doom and gloom portrayed by the mainstream media.
The sky is falling routine is getting old and people are wising up. The Tarif talk by the President was much ado about nothing. He was merely using the Tariff threat to negotiate NAFTA and also various trade agreements. Something he had indicated long before as a priority.
There is nothing new about Tariffs. Matter of fact they are the norm in foreign trade. Except of course for the U.S. how has been running a trade deficit for years. Now there is a President that is seeking to reverse that.
The pushback is from the politicians in D.C. who are beholden to special interests to prevent this from happening. There is a lot of money that has been invested to make sure the U.S. continues its status quo. That is where the fight is. Special interests vs the President.
Again, all the doom and gloom is not only overdone but is mostly fake news.
The big news out this morning that has put a nice bump premarket is the news of N. Korea agreeing to talks with the condition of denuclearization. Something that the Presidents critics will not be happy with.
After all, if he happens to reach an agreement with N.Korea that includes denuclearization, it will mean a pretty sound defeat of the President’s critics on foreign policy. It is a bit early to call it a win, but at least there is movement from the nuking the U.S. rhetoric toward actual discussions.
Now before you go accusing me of being a big Trump fan, I in no way intend to express my overall opinions politically. But, when it comes to evaluating the news cycles, I do want to evaluate it in an objective manner with ideas on what effect it might have on the markets.
And regardless of who is President, when they do positive things, it’s a good idea to give credit when it is due. If you find yourself in the camp that obsessively despises a President no matter what he says, does, or accomplishes then you have short-circuited in my opinion.
In addition, you are most likely a victim of the “Wag the Dog” influence that is purposely put out to influence you. Not a very good place to be if you’re going to make intelligent decisions on where to invest your money.
Most everything I look at is green premarket. I exited my 100% position in SPY via SSO for a nice gain yesterday. The lesson from the trade is that with mean reversion trading it is typically best to leg into a position rather than putting 100% on initially.
Sometimes I leg in 25% at a time or 50 50 like I did in this trade.
I am still holding UNP. I entered the trade at 133.39 and the stock is trading premarket at 130.32. We are still aways from an exit on this trade.
The question is right now was the reversal yesterday a reversal to new highs for the markets or is it just more volatility like we have been seeing the last month.
I think it all depends on the news cycle. You have the IG report coming out any week now. That has the potential to be a big market moving event. Both as to what it says and to how the various participants in the political dramas unfolding react.
The biggest participant to watch is Sessions. So far he has been quiet. Some are saying much too quiet and are seeking his resignation. While some are saying he is waiting for the IG report to spring into action.
But rest assured, how Sessions reacts to the IG report is going to tell the tale as to what kind of mayhem is in store for the U.S. and the markets.
I will have more on this later, but I want to close this saying that the cross-currents are very complicated. It’s no easy task to figure out what really is going on behind the scenes. And it does not help with all the fake news coming out every day now about where the Mueller investigation is heading.
The only thing that is easy to figure out is that almost 100% of what is being put out by the mainstream media right now is either misleading or outright false. So you had best find another source if you want to stay abreast of reality these days:)
Finally, my bottom reversal trades did not trigger yesterday and looking over them this morning I still have 4 trades on my watch list. Many dropped by the wayside yesterday.
If I take one I will share it on my private twitter feed: rickjswings
Also if you’re at all interested in March Madness and the other college hoop tournaments come join us for the next month!
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Good Luck Today
RickJ
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks
rickjshandicappingpicks.com
Skype: riccja
