I always thought it amazing how when I played poker full time the best variable I had was when the poker players were all in agreement on a certain team in the NFL for the weekend. I never kept track but I would say it was well over 60% winners fading them. Then to add to this when I was asked for my best pick for the weekend the reaction to it told me how strong a pick it was.
If a few players got mad and upset about how stupid that pick was I knew I could relax as it most likely was going to be an easy win. But on the other hand, if I heard many of them tell me they loved that play I went home and handicapped the game!!!
It is very similar to the Stock Market. Now there are a few people that are experts that you can listen to. But they are like finding a needle in a haystack.
So when Cuban came out and said he was 100% certain the market would drop hard if Trump was elected and that not only was he going to hedge 100% of his portfolio but get net short in addition that to me was like Quasimodo climbing the tower and ringing the bell that we would get a big rally if Trump won.
Now iI am not saying anything negative about Cuban as I actually enjoy watching the guy and hearing what he has to say. But as a stock market predictor he just falls into the realm of human nature and all of you that have been following this site for any length of time knows about human nature in the markets and gambling in general.
But these are the extraneous things you should be paying attention to Not for following these statements but for fading them. They are some of the best setups you can find anywhere.
Briefly, a study was done about headlines related to the markets in major magazines and the relationship of designating turning points in the markets. Not surprisingly it was found that when a nonfinancial publication has on the cover of its magazine something of the nature “Market makes new highs” or anything similar to that the turning point is close at hand. The person had a website dedicated to that completely. I will have to dig it out of my memory banks and give you the site as its very interesting.
So I lightened up a bit on Wednesday but I am still long the market. Today I will be a bit more conservative as historically early next week favors the short side. It’s a small bias but one that has existed for quite awhile after the Thanksgiving Weekend.
I will still be looking for a swing long today.
As I write this the market is slightly up with the biggest gainers being DM and IBB. That is g good thing for the markets this morning.
If you want to follow some of my trades along with my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. It’s my private twitter feed for the stock market and its free. Sports Handicapping is the subscription-based part of this site. But considering the cost of joining it’s almost free:)
Good Luck Today
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks