The Stock Market is gapping higher again this morning. Monday was a consolidation day but it appears we are off and running again today!
Of note, Financials, IBB, Strong. TLT, Metals, are weak.
Looks like a positive bias to me 30 min before the open.
I have only one position that I have shared on right now and that is GLD. We have a gain on the trade and so far no exit has been triggered.
Not much is coming up on my mean reversion scans. Commodities are certainly on the list, however, a setup is aways away for a bottom reversal trade in these.
On the home front, two issues take center stage. DACA and the budget reaches a head within two weeks. The talks on both sides have not moved much.
On the one hand, you have a side wanting to approve DACA with no strings attached, while on the other side you have approved DACA with conditions. Several of those being a border wall, eliminate relatives coming in, eliminate the lottery method of immigration.
The sides are not restricted to one party. You have a group in the Republican party that sides with the Democrats on this issue to varying degrees.
The President sent it to Congress with the idea that it was Congress that had the authority to deal with this issue. So, will they deal with it and how? That is the questions.
Both sides are threatening a government shutdown on this. Both sides are polarized as if that is any big surprise. So the question is will this be more of the same where we go to the last second and a deal is struck, or do we get a shutdown.
There is a third real possibility, and that is it gets kicked down the road with another temporary funding bill.
So, you have to ask your self, do you feel lucky today:)
If so you can trade the situation by waiting until the pullback from the shutdown scare and buying right at the deadline. Perhaps a day before or on the open of the day. If not, sit this trade out.
As far as the probability, let’s say 2-1 against a shutdown on this issue.
Then we have the IG report coming out in 6 days. I wrote on that yesterday. If you missed it take a look.
So far the only new news is that Mueller wants an interview with the President. Now how accurate that is who knows. So far I have not seen anything that could corroborate that from any reliable source.
But, I expect more than likely there will be some shocker just prior to the IG report. It will have to be a big one as the IG report is going to change the dynamics of what we have been seeing out of the current DOJ and FBI.
This is the biggest and most significant report I can recall coming up in many years.
Now its validity will have to wait until we see what is in it and how far it goes.
Do not underestimate the significance on the markets that this report will have. This is a big one.
Again this morning I will not be available at the open. Been a busy few mornings for me.
But you can get ahold of me either by email at [email protected] or Skype username riccja
Have a good trading day!
If you want to follow some of my trades along with my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. Typically I talk about the overall day expected with the markets and also give some levels on the ES and NQ for failed breakout scalping.
It’s my private twitter feed for the stock market and its free. Sports Handicapping is the subscription-based part of this site. But considering the cost of joining it’s almost free:)
Good Luck Today
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