In a little over 30 min the third game of the elite 8 tips off:
Betting is 56% on the favorite Virginia with the line staying steady at -8-106. The “sharps” moved it to 7.5 earlier however the line has now moved back to the open. That’s quite a bit of movement for 56%. I would imagine the “sharps” are on both sides of this game. Variables and models are neutral and the public betting gives very little in the way of clues also. This game is about as clear a pass as I can imagine. And I am passing on the game.
Meanwhile, I have spent most of the day working on getting ready for Baseball. I have been asked about the number of wagers to expect over the course of a season. While I do not make any representations concerning the amount of plays I put out typically, however, there tend to be more plays than most expect. So to answer the question I would anticipate more than the NHL and most likely a bit less then College baskets.
And again as it is a money line sport its essential to get a 10c out for betting baseball. This will be much easier to find then the NHL as most books now have 10c lines. In addition, the ones that do not tend to adjust their lines quite a bit with the public so often you can get a line equal to or better than some of the 10c books. But still to be on the same side I would have at least 1 10c out.
The other question I have been asked is about the qualifying day and whether that is set in stone. Yes, it is. If you’re not a subscriber on opening day then the $130.00 back at the end of 5 months is not something you would qualify for. I want to make this as simple as possible so it does not interfere with my time handicapping.
Good Luck Today
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks
Saturday we won our 1 unit play on Villanova +2. We also had four 1/2 unit plays going 2-0 in the NBA and 0-2 in the NHL.
Today things have lightened up a bit on the schedule but as I look at the games there seem to be some opportunity. At least early. My guess is the numbers today in College hoops are going to bounce around quite a bit before game time. You are already seeing the “sharps” all over the dogs in both games but the public is fresh off a spectacular run on the favorites so they should be flush with money to pound them again today.
What’s interesting to me is that historically the way to go all things being equal for the sweet 16 and elite 8 has been the dog. As we can see the historical results have been turned upside down this season. Combine that with the historical bias on the Under for the round of 32 get also turned upside down its been a tough tournament for “sharp” bettors. The public’s tendencies are well know…favorite and over…compared to the “sharps” dog and under.
And then you have the books in the middle trying to put out a line that will get equal action on both sides. It was easy when 95% of the bettors were public bettors. But now it is most likely 65-35 public. That creates not only a new dynamic for the sports books but a new dynamic for sports handicappers.
It was way too easy when 95% of the bettors were public bettors. I would laugh years ago when a 10 point dog in the NFL had only 15% of the betting on them and the line kept moving with the public betting. I would laugh as most of the time not only would it be an easy cover but the big dog often won the game outright confounding all but the 5% that expected something of that nature.
The poker players I played with at the time would laugh when I told them who I liked for the day! Sometimes even got angry. I used to gauge the strength of a play by the reaction at the poker table. And it was a pretty good indicator:)
But those days are long gone. It’s become a much more subtle technique for handicapping these games. Nothing is obvious anymore. There are more pieces of the puzzle to put together before deciding if a side potentially had a positive EV. In addition, as you can see from some of my NBA 1/2 unit plays there are situations where public favorites actually historically are strong plays in the NBA. Many of my “sharp” handicapping techniques do not even come close to the previous results shown on some of these public favorites. Granted there are not many but they so far they are very solid.
But that is what I do. I keep tabs on the ever-changing world of handicapping and the dynamics involved. There are very few techniques that you can sit back and make money with year after year now. Public betting is still #1 in my opinion for finding value but its only 1 step of a very complex process.
Enough rambling for this morning.
If you have an interest in wagering on baseball I have a $130.00 special that requires you be a subscriber on day 1 of the MLB Season. I have been asked why do that? I am putting my money where my mouth is so to speak. I have been saying how I have made significant changes similar to the NHL and to show my confidence I am offering this. If I have to pay out a substantial amount of money because I have a losing season in baseball this year so be it. But as I see it fair is fair and that is what I strive for.
Good Luck Today
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks