Game 1 of the day:
Betting is 69% on the Favorite with the line moving from -1 to -2.5-104. Models favor Oklahoma. Variables are split on the game. Public betting very slightly favors Oklahoma St. Not much to go on here with variables supporting both sides of the game. While the models favor Oklahoma it is not by a great deal. Just not enough here to wager on this game for me. A pass
New Mexico St
Betting is 58% on the dog with the line moving from -12 to -12+100. It is 11.5 at CRIS. So right off we have a game where <50% is on the favorite. That leads me to the favorite or nothing. This edge is even more pronounced in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. Models however slightly favor New Mex St. Variables slightly favor Baylor and public betting favors Baylor. If the models pointed to Baylor I would consider betting them. But I would have to see at least -10 or even -9.5 to bet the game. Not going to get there so I will be passing on the game. One other thing to consider on the game is the low total. Typically, with low totals you do not want to be laying a lot of points, all things being equal.
Good Luck Whichever side you take on these games!
A late start this morning so I am going to skip the Swing Trade comments for today. Although I added AGN and GPN to SLCA and now have 3 positions that I have posted.
On Thursday we had 3 plays and went 2-1. All three in the NCAA Tournament.
We started off with Princeton +6.5 and they only lost by 2 against #14 Notre Dame. I had posted to subscribers that this was very close to a “perfect storm” play. As it turns out the move to 5.5 would have taken it out of that category.
Next, we had S Dakota St +22 against #2 Gonzaga. This could have gone either way at the end but it went our way and they only lost by 20.
Finally, our third play was N.Dakota +17.5 vs #4 Arizona. They did not keep it close the first half and were off by 17. But the 2nd half kept the game close with the line and again as in S Dakota St it could have gone either way but we lost by 1/2 a pt!
So far then in the NCAA Tournament, we are 3-2 and in the NIT 1-0.
Today I have sent out 1 play so far.
In the NCAA Tournament, there are a lot of variables in play most of which have very small edges in relation to positive EV. For instance, I was asked about Florida st before game time. My response was if I were betting the game I would be taking the favorite Florida St. They did not cover. But the point is you have to be very careful with what works historically.
That is why I like to have everything going for a game for me to bet it. Princeton was one of those types of games. Fading Gonzaga and Arizona were both solid EV plays.
I spend the day watching numbers bounce around. And they do bounce around, at least the numbers I am looking at.
Good Luck Today
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks