One more game in the NFL tonight:
Betting is 75% on the road favorite with the line moving from -8.5-105 to -8-106. Models favor Indianapolis. Variables are neutral. Public betting favors Indianapolis with only 25% on the home dog and a reverse line move. One of the downfalls of models is when a starting quarterback goes out. It’s very tough to figure out what type of adjustment to make in the models. One school of thought is to ignore the change in quarterback and handicap the game without reference to who is playing.
I understand that argument and I tend to think that is the better approach unless your adept over the years at making that adjustment. But remember you have to be better than the books to think your adjustment is going to beat the spread. From my experience, that is not likely.
The other approach is to just stay away from the game. That tends to be the way I approach it. Unless I see a reason to make an exception. Tonight I do not see a reason. With variables neutral on the game I would not be betting the game anyway. So it’s an easy pass for me. If luck were the quarterback and I saw what I am seeing right now I still would not bet the game as variables give no clues on the game.
So for me it has been a pass on all three games today.
Next game in the NFL up for today:
Betting is 52% on the home favorite with the line moving from -7+102 to -5. Models favor Dallas. Variables favor Dallas and public betting is neutral. The variables that point to Dallas are not the strongest but they do exist. If the betting on Dallas was around 40% I would consider betting Dallas. But at 52% the public betting does not confirm the models and the variables. So this game is a pass for me. It’s tempting to take Dallas here but I would be really stretching it. Something I have not done for a long time.
On Wednesday we had 4 one unit plays and went 2-2 for +.28 units.
Our College Hoop totals continue on a nice 6-0 run the last two days. E. Kentucky Under 148 won 82-65. In the NHL we went 1-0 winning with Calgary +148 2-0. And in the NBA we went 0-2 losing with Portland +11.5 125-137 and Miami +5 84-107.
So far today there a no plays pending.
Will Detroit on thanksgiving come through today. That in the past has been a common mantra. I do not give it any weight . I lump in into the random event category:)
Betting is 62% on the home favorite with the line staying firm at -2.5. Models slightly favor Minn. Variables are neutral and public betting is neutral. I do not see anything that gives clues as to the right side except the models I look at. Those alone do not even come close to producing value on a side. Also interestingly in some instances when the models are way off there is a bias to the other side! But that is a completely different area to talk about and not applicable here.
So for me, the game is a clear pass today.
I will try to post on the other 2 NFL games today shortly before game times.
For subscribers on the problems, we have been having with Verizon SMS. I have gone to the email address of Verizon subscribers and have changed the vtext.com address to another that might remedy the problem. Also, I noticed not everyone with Verizon is having a problem. My search has come up with an issue as to the settings for SMS messaging receiving on Verizon. So if you are still having a problem with SMS you might go over your Verizon SMS settings .
Let me know if you do not get the SMS messages today.
We are on a nice run now the last 3 days going 12-4. College totals finally have kicked in after a sluggish start.
I expect some early plays today so be on the lookout for plays being sent out between 9 and 9:25.
Wish all of you the best on Thanksgiving.
Good Luck Today
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks