One game tonight in the NBA:
Betting is 72% on the road favorite with the line moving from -1-105 to -1.5-108. Models are neutral and variables favoring Golden State. There is a conflict here with the variables favoring Golden state and they have 72% of the betting on the team. When I see this the game becomes an easy pass for me. Its hard enough when you have everything going your way. No sense making it tougher when you have conflicting information on the right side. I am passing.
Out of the blue we get a huge trend day up in the Stock Market. You never know. I am sure this took plenty of shorts by surprise so today I would not expect a reversal as the shorts are still hoping for a drop. When it becomes clear they will all be exiting at the highs. Not much ever changes.
Unfortunately I have missed this rally today and am long a few puts but a very small position. I could blame it on my computer problems the last 20 hours or so but I doubt that had anything to do with it.
So today its just watch and wait for an opportunity to set up. I doubt today will be the day it will happen. These large gap ups are hard to trade. Matter of fact large gap days in either direction present the toughest intra-day environment for swing and break out trading.
I did pick up a scalp on the open on the ES but thats primarily for fun as I enjoy those scalp trades. Wakes me up in the morning:)
Also let me mention sports as I did not post yesterday as my computer was down.
We had 2 plays on Monday both 1/2 unit plays and went 1-1. The Mets +134 won 7-1 and Minn +111 lost 4-10.
I have already sent out two plays this morning and unlike yesterday there are several other games that have some promise. These plays I put out early are ones that are a certainty to stay plays and have a high likelihood of the line moving against us if I wait until game time. Overnights are tough as the betting is just getting started but occasionally I find one the night before.
Good Luck Today
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks