It’s a very precarious start for the stock market in 2019.
SPY -.87%QQQ -2.42%IWM -.71%IBB -1.28%TLT +.21%Financials -1%+U.S. Dollar +.33%Oil -1%Metals +.5%
Putting it all together it appears to be a negative premarket bias. I would not be trading any gap fills today. Chances for a trend day down seem ripe.
On the political
The house takes control this week. And look out, as then investigations start in earnest. My thought is that the special counsel has been waiting for the change in control of the house. Will issue a report that will promptly initiate the beginning of impeachment proceedings in the House.
I know that there are theories that abound the other way on this but my opinion is that has been the goal from the start. All part of the insurance policy.
I expect a full out assault from the House, The AG in the Southern District of New York, the Media, and from many in the Senate.
Already, Romney has issued a cowardly assault on the President in the Washington Post to start out the new year.
No doubt this was not a spur of the moment
This is the time they are going to go full out , to either remove Trump in any way they can. As afterall, the gravy train they have all been on is threatened. And they cannot let that happen.
So that is where we stand going into the New year. The odds are 50/50 of a Trump impeachment in the house, I would be betting he gets impeached. Almost seems like a sure thing to me. They only need a majority, and Ryan and the other 100 republicans that stepped aside to let the Dems take control, did not do that for no reason.
The House gained enough Democrat seats that even if their were a few Dems that had some integrity there would not be enough to defeat an impeachment vote.
The media will be in full frontal assault. Blood will be in the water, and it will be a feeding frenzy.
Now, the question is does Trump survive, and secondly does the Republican party survive.
If anyone can survive it will be Trump. But, Sessions put him in such a hole that I think he is a dog at this point. Unless, he goes on full assault mode and soon. This rope a dope he has been playing is not working.
As far as the Republican party, you are looking at a Republican establishment in its death throus. Trump has 95% of the base and they are discusted with the establishment. The republicans think they can pull off the same thing they did with the tea party. I think they are in for a rude shock.
The end result may well be, the Dems get control of the all brancheds of government in 2020, if they take Trump down and no MAGA candidate comes forward.
The Establishment will not let that happen and my prediction is if trump goes so goes the Republican party.
What does this mean for the markets? Not good. If you thin 2018 was craay, 2019 should be crazy x10.
So be prepared. I would not at all be surprised to see a full blown bear market before the end of 2020.
Happy New Year:)
Now a caveat, I am not alway correct:) But
I will have more on the Trump impeachment odds in another post later this week.
RickJ’s Handicapping Pick