If you did not panic yesterday you were rewarded. A massive rebound saved the day. In addition, the markets are hovering around the even mark this morning.
I have been holding my own, remarkably so considering the violent swings the market has been taking.
This is not the type of market action you want to see if you are a swing trader. You will get some nice gains if your quick, but if you are not you will take plenty of losses.
Of course, we all like it better when the market is trending. Then making money is easy. But you need to learn how to trade in both environments as Trending markets are not the norm.
Typically markets are range based.
Today I expect some follow through on the upside. What you want to watch is how strong a rebound we get. Typically, in strong down moves like this, the low has not been in.
Some are saying yesterday was a washout day. Could be, that is why we need to watch the character of the rebound.
Sitting on top of this market is the midterms. A lot of uncertainty exists right now. More as to the House than the Senate. But, if the market gets wind that the Republicans are going to keep the House you will get a rally that will shock you.
What I am doing is watching reliable pollsters, not the political ones, and making an assessment whether to get long before the midterms.
To me there is much more upside potential than downside risk if the Dems take the House. The reason is that the Dems taking the House is being built into the markets right now.
Let me also mention that it is not an easy assignment to try to figure out the House. If you look at the mainstream media polling the Dems are about 4 to 1 to take the house. If you look at the betting odds it is closer to 3 to 2.
If you look at some of the more reliable pollsters it becomes closer to a tossup. Logically it would appear to be a toss-up to me. From pure logic, based upon the Trump crowds compared to the Crowds Obama and company are getting, it would seem that the Republicans will easily keep the house.
So there it is. Figure that one out:) Its never easy, if it was anyone could do it:)
If you have been following my trades online, we have been staying about even, which is the best you can hope for when you have markets as volatile as these.
The idea is to not lose a lot, but then to be well positioned to when we start trending again. There are a lot of trades, and unless you are risk tolerant these are not for you.
I approach trading like I approach sports handicapping. Systematic and controlled. It works for me. Much better than random based upon fear and greed. That never works.
I plan on doing a write up soon with a detailed evaluation of the various news that is important right now for the markets. But it will require some time to do this article. Its coming.
I am also developing a real news twitter list that is private. I am trying to stay away from the political types and only on the investigative journalists that accurately state the news and the issues.
If you want access to the list just send me an email. I just started it this morning, but It will grow as I add more names to it. Do not expect the left or right talking points. Just news, unfiltered, by real investigative journalism.
Let me also mention, if you’re hooked on any particular ideology you will not like the list. Until you break that habit it will do you no good. I know, I have been there and done that!
My intention is to have a list that will give you an accurate backdrop of the new environment that markets are trading in.
If you want to follow some of my trades along with my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. Typically I talk about the overall day expected with the markets and also give some levels on the ES and NQ for failed breakout scalping.
It’s my private twitter feed for the stock market and its free. Sports Handicapping is the subscription-based part of this site. But considering the cost of joining it’s almost free:)
Good Luck Today
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks