Afters Friday’s plunge the markets have stabilized a bit this morning. Index futures are slightly lower, Oil lower, TLT lower and metals higher.
Over all to me this looks like a slightly negative premarket.
From a mean reversion standpoint ideally I would like to see some more downside heading into friday, when I will be looking to start trading the long side.
Nothing is ever ideal , so you have to evaluate it as it comes. That is why I try to leg into my mean reversion trades.
I picked up a nice seasonal trade last week buying puts a week ago and getting out Friday for a nice gain. This has been a very positive EV play for a very long time.
We have a similar situation coming up this Friday but on the long side. But, it will all depend on the market action heading into friday.
On the news side, the SC is finally over:) No collusion and no obstruction. However, if you are just listening to the media, you would not know this is true.
That is why if you’re still getting you’r news from the mainstream media you are at a severe handicap from a trading perspective. In addition, your also at a handicap from a reality perspective:)
The idea is to find independent journalists, that are ethical, honest and accurate. Its like finding a needle in a haystack, but once you do, you will be amazed at how your perspective changes. I have my list and would be happy to share it with anyone that wishes. It includes both Democrats and Republicans, but the common denominator is they are all honest and ethical.
On the international front, we have a mixed bag. China trade negotiations are still going on and overall they appear constructive. Russia, however, is sending troops into Venezuela, that is troublesome. And the Mideast is still a powder keg.
Overall, its a wait and see. Some things to watch is what Barr now does with indictments that are referred to him as a result of the Russia Hoax. I am not certain how aggressive he is going to get on this. But I do not think he is going to ignore it completely.
The House on the other hand is committed to a course of self destruction. Schiff and Nadler have given no indication of backing off what I consider their suicide mission. That may change, but, I doubt it. They are pretty much committed to this course, as if they sit back and do nothing, then its just a question of waiting for the hammer to fall.
The bottom line is the politics is not going to settle down. If anything , things are going to heat up as the Dems try to get their base crazier than they already are. There is a lot at stake here, and its not only 2020, its prison for many if things go wrong.
As long as they have the media in their pocket they feel the have no risk. I think they are making a big mistake. But time will tell.
If your a swing trader this is the environment your dealing with. But there are still some strong seasonal trends coming up, and in addition some short term swings that can be taken advantage of.
On the sports handicapping front I am having a great NCAA Tournament. Going something like 6-1 on my NCAA plays this year.
MLB is starting on March 28th the earliest it has started, with a full slate of games. I will be sending my overnights out between 2 and 4 the day before. They will all be 1 unit plays and will include totals.
I am giving the same special I have given the last 3 years. If your a subscriber from day 1 to the end of the regular season and I do not have a winning season you get a 50% refund. So far I have not had to refund any money:)
If you have an interest , you can send me an email or contact me via skype. Or subscribe via the paypal menu on the site.
Good Luck Today
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks
Skype : riccja