Do you know how to trade options expiration days…Because today it one of those days!!!

 

4:00 Update

No NBA game tonight however there is a baseball game that should be instructive with some interesting numbers:

Texas

Houston

Betting is 67% on the road dog with the line moving from -130 to -155. So that is a 25c move on a team that has only 33% of the betting on them. Now that is a reverse line move! Models strongly favor Houston and variables are completely neutral on the game. Public betting of course favors Houston.  Baseball is a strange sport as I need some pretty good variables to bet a game. Models and public betting alone does not do it for me. But if your own handicapping points you to houston you could use this as confirmation and if your own handicapping points to texas you might want to use this to reconsider the game. Myself I am passing.

8:45 A.M. Update

Thursday we had one 1/2 unit play and it lost in another extra inning nail-biter. Minn had a 2-0 lead until the 6th when Toronto tied it up. Then 1 run in the top of the 11th and that was it.

I sent out two setups last night one of which turned into a 1/2 unit play this morning. I put the games out early where I think there is an excellent chance that the lines at the time are not going to get any better and that there is little chance of the game falling out of a setup or play. We have had some good movement on the lines and most have worked in our favor. It’s something to keep a watch on.

I have been going back now over the last 6 weeks in detail with the filter that I added a week ago. It’s astonishing the improvement that it makes in the results. Let’s see if we can carry that out now through the end of the season!

So we have one play  sent out now with a few other games that show some promise. Let’s see if we can build on this last week and keep baseball solid going into September when the fun days of football kick into gear. My favorite time.

Good Luck Today

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

 

Options expiration rolls around once a month and it has a fairly defined pattern. Typically its weakness from the open until around 9:00 PST.  Its a fairly strong bias, strong enough to consider trading it. My approach is trying to rule out as best you can a trend day up before putting on the trade. That means taking a look at the $ADD and if its +1500 or more at the open I pass on the trade.

Another way to play the trade if you do not want to expose yourself for 2.5 hours is to take a gap fill trade. Now there are certain parameters to look for in gap fill trades but as a general rule large gap ups or gaps above yesterday’s high would nix that trade.

Looking at the SPY now it looks likely that I will trade the setup as the gap up is only about .30%.  We will see:)

I am also positioned short but the positions despite the rough waters have not produced much except for the exit I took when one of the stocks was off almost 4% intraday. So I have that profit to work with vs the other trades. I may use the weakness (if there is any) to exit these positions before 9. Maybe.

It’s been a wild week in the markets and if your trading at levels higher then you should be our probably not sleeping well at night! Trading related insomnia is a sure indicator that your position sizing is wrong. I can help with that. Just send me an email and we can figure out how to get you sleeping soundly again and still trade. This is not a come on for a subscription as my private twitter feed is free right now. It’s merely me trying to be helpful as I am very empathetic.

Ten min until the open so I have to run.

Good Luck Today

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

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