Does the Caravan approaching the southern border pose a stock market risk? My thoughts

Another overnight save for the Stock Market as we head into the new week.
All indexes now have solid gains. Financials are mixed, as are metals. Oil and the dollar are weak, while TLT is positive.
This configuration will give you a headache if you look at it too long:)
So lets call it a slightly positive bias this morning.
The news this morning is most about the Caravan heading to the U.S. southern border. Rumors are its set to arrive around election day.
This will start getting 24/7 coverage soon, accompanied with all the spin we are familiar with at this point.
We also have the Saudi incident still in the news. But it appears to be winding down at this point.
Then there is the midterms rapidly approaching with the political environment getting hotter every day.
So if your a swing trader, keep these in mind, as they are all market moving events.
There are others, tariffs, Russian arms treaty, to name a few:)
And of course, there is the FED.
A lot for this market to overcome. But the good news is we only have a week or so left in October, and then we start a very strong seasonal period.
In addition, this pullback has not been that big. It might seem that way but nothing extreme so far.
If I had to predict what we are heading into for the markets before election day I would suspect we will be continuing the volatility we are seeing now.
If the Republicans keep the house and senate, you will see a massive rally in the markets. One that might surprise even the most experienced traders. If the Democrats get them both, my guess is the opposite will happen.
And if the Dems get the House only, perhaps a dip, but then a recovery soon after.
That is my 2 cents on a Monday morning 🙂

If you want to follow some of my trades along with my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. Typically I talk about the overall day expected with the markets and also give some levels on the ES and NQ for failed breakout scalping.

It’s my private twitter feed for the stock market and its free. Sports Handicapping is the subscription-based part of this site. But considering the cost of joining it’s almost free:)

Good Luck Today


RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

Skype: Ricca

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