One more game in the NBA tonight:
Betting is 71% on the road favorite with the line moving from -4.5 to -6. It’s -6.5 in many spots. Models are neutral and variables slightly favor Golden State. However if you’re thinking about betting Golden State at this late date I think you’re late to the party. Not only would you be laying 1.5 to 2 pts off the opener but you would be with 71% of the bettors. Never a spot you want to be in. In the long run these type of situations you should look to avoid no matter how sweet they look. I am passing on the game. Although I will be interested in seeing how the game turns out:)
First game in the NBA starts in 30 min:
Betting is 52% on Miami with the line moving from -5.5 to -5. Models are neutral and variables ever so slightly favor Miami. Betting is about even on both sides so no clues here at all. This game to me is as close to a toss-up as one could find. I am passing
Sunday things slowed up a bit with 3 1/2 unit plays. We went 1-2 Losing in MLB with Atlanta +133 3-5 and the Yankees -119 1-5. In the NBA, we won with Atlanta under 204.5 100-99. It was interesting as the under was looking grim after a 63 pt 1st quarter. You never know:)
The 1/2 unit plays in baseball have been grim so far this season however despite that we are only off 2.7 units. Plenty of time left in baseball…and eternity until august 31st:)
I have not even started looking at the games tonight as I woke up late and have been pretty busy this morning in the markets. All games are late games so I will get to it soon.
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Good Luck Today
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks
A busy morning for me especially when I wake up at 5:30. 4:00 is my perfect wake up time but lately I have been missing it. In any event, the market has been hovering around the breakeven mark the first 1.5 hours of trading.
My opinion is that most likely we get weakness or consolidation early this week then a rally to May 20th. I have a lot of reasons to think that way but I will not bore you with the details. The primary idea is that sentiment has turned bearish and as a contrarian it’s looking like we do not get the sell in may fall just yet. It’s coming but I do not think just yet.
So my idea is to watch a bit this week and look Tuesday or Wednesday for long setups in earnest for trades into may 20th. Not a long window but if you get a nice rally you will not need a long window!
Another thing to be on the watch for this week is Fed Speak. Every day this week we will have to endure the Fed governors pushing whatever agenda they have at the moment. Remember the historical drop after Jan 1 this year was fueled in part by the Fed purposely getting hawkish. But they never did follow through except for one 1/4 pt rate hike.
So the only thing that is consistent with the Fed except for their quest for fame in front of the media is that whatever they say at the moment means virtually nothing as to what their policy will actually be. However what it will do is make the market nervous which will result in increased volatility.
I have a variety of positions right now and with Fridays reversal, I posted a nice gain for the day. Today I am treading water but as far as exposure its pretty light right now.
One other thing to keep in mind is the Fed despite what anyone is going to tell you is run by the party in power. And of course, the party in power does not want to lose their power so you can count on the fed doing nothing dramatic until after the Nov elections. Do you really think they are going to get aggressive with rate hikes before then and potentially hurt the Democrats in Nov? If you are naive enough to think the do does not consider that you better head back to the drawing board:)
That’s it for this morning. I put on one trade this morning which was a mean reversion trade with a stop. I usually do not put stops on Mean reversion trades as they reduce the EV but in this environment, I have no desire to take a big hit.
Also, if you wish to follow my trades you can follow @rickjswings. This is my private twitter feed and is free for now. I also if I have time put out the best scalp setup for the es that occurs shortly after the open. This morning it was good for around 1.5 pts in the ES.
Good Luck Today
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks