April has now begun and our first three wagers went 0-1 on Under 144.5 in the Oklahoma game. That was a 1 unit play. We also had two 1/2 unit plays losing in a tough one on Under 194 with San Antonio and winning in the NHL on Arizona +135. So an auspicious start to a new month.
Starting March 1st after an incredible run we hit an air pocket that has resulted in a pretty good drawdown. Saying that I have to say that subscribers to this service have taken it in stride. Which is the only way to take it. The bettors that get mad and upset when they lose a few games are long gone as they usually are in sports betting. But I have to say I have never had a stretch like this where bettors following me have been disciplined and nonjudgemental of the drawdown. I think most have now realized periods like this come with the territory. That is a big step in gambling a step that very few ever make.
I did get a few questions about my under wager on Oklahoma after a 6 pt move off the opener. And that is good. It means your thinking. Which as I said many times there is nothing you can accomplish in life and be successful without using your own thinking ability also. It isn’t going to happen by blindly following anyone. The next step which I know many of you if not all of you do is handicap on your own. You are going to get the most from this service if you also are learning as you go and bring into this your own experiences and ideas.
But I welcome discourse on my wagers. And as you know by now my wagers are made as a result of a disciplined approach to handicapping that I rarely waiver from. I was asked rightfully so why I didn’t wager on the Under sooner when the line was higher? I answered that in my post yesterday but let me mention it again that my methods do not try to figure out the right side of the game or total based upon the makeup of the players of the teams. I do not try to do the same analysis that the books use. But I take their analysis and then on any particular day where the value might be on the game because of variables that exist prior to game time that I consider are prognostic to determining value.
Occasionally I will overlook something but it is a rare event that I have not considered almost every possibility or contingency before making a wager. But even then as you can see drawdowns are unavoidable.
Now baseball starts today with three games and then a full schedule tomorrow. Let me make this comment one more time. And then make another offer to Subscribers. First, if you do not set up a bankroll for baseball based upon your risk tolerance and then wager 2% as a baseline for your bets with the bankroll you might as well not ever get started with baseball. Again do yourself a favor and take the summer off and check in from time to time to see how we are doing. If you do not do this you are not going to end up a winner for the baseball season. And even then baseball is a tough sport to bet on.
Now reading that if you have any reservations about baseball or feel you do not have the discipline to follow my advice. Just drop me an email and if you sent in your subscription the last 7 days I will gladly refund your subscription fee and hope to see you back in the fall for the start of the NFL and College Football. If however you have been following this site and thinking about joining us for the baseball season the $130.00 back guarantee outlined in the post to the right of this one will only be available through the 4th of April. In other words you need to subscribe before April 5th to qualify.
I started this service to help defray expenses but that is not as important to me as seeing that subscribers have the best opportunity to make money. And I assure you its 100% certain if you do not do as I say you have 0 chance to come out ahead for the baseball season. You might be able to get away with being undisciplined in the NFL and College Football with my plays. But not Baseball.
If you want any help with deciding on your bankroll size or how to structure your betting just send me an email and I can give you my input to help you get started.
If you love sports betting the entire idea is to be around year after year wagering. So many people take themselves out of action, not because of the quality of the plays but the way they approach it. I see that not only in sports betting but also poker. But that story is for another day.
As the saying goes “Its a hard way to make an easy living”
Back to work for me
Good Luck Today
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks