5:00 Update
Another game coming up with two ranked teams:
#21 Virgina
#22 Notre Dame
Betting is 51% on the favorite with the line moving from -5 to -3-109. Models are neutral on the game, variables are neutral and public betting is neutral. So to me, there are no clues at all to give an indication where value might be on the game. It is rare that you see nothing at all pointing to a side but this is a game that points to nothing. In addition, it looks like the bettors are of the same opinion as the betting is pretty much 50/50 on the game. I am passing
Wednesday we had one play in college hoops and it lost. LSU +5.5 lost 52-79.
So far today we have had no plays.
It has been tough sledding right now and looking over the games from the last week, even the marginal games went down big. My filters are keeping me from a complete meltdown. Public favorites have been killing it in conference tournament play.
Today a lot of games and I will be very selective again today. These lines are pretty solid right now and the edges are hard to find. These teams have played each other several times so the books have had a good look.
Much of what I look at has not helped the last week or so. But last night I went over post season play again and tightened things up. I typically do that when not much seems to be working correctly as I see it.
One game coming up between two ranked teams:
#14 Duke
#10 Louisville
Betting is 62 % on the favorite with the line moving from -1 to -2-102. Models favor Louisville, Variables favor Louisville and public betting is neutral. If the public were on Duke in this game I would be betting Louisville. My methods in college hoops prevent me from betting teams that over 50% of the public is on. So I am compelled to pass on the game.
Good Luck Today whichever side you take
RickJ
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks
