On Monday we had 2 1/2 unit plays and they both lost.
Pitt +210 lost 1-12 and Miami +105 lost 4-9.
There was only 1 big move game and it predicted the move by .05.
Big move games right now are the stellar performer both from the standpoint of predicting the line moves but also if you wagered on each one you would have made 130 wagers and find yourself +8.04 units.
These would be wagers based upon my models without any other considerations. I do not recommend that but so far these have been at the top in what I put out for MLB.
So far today I have sent out a 1 unit play in MLB and 3 Big line Move games.
Did I say MLB was a grind:) Those that were with me last season for the entire season know exactly what I am talking about. Last season the profit we made was the last 2 to 3 weeks of the season.
I have been asked again about the 1/2 unit plays. Have faith:) I do not make changes randomly. If any of you have played poker with me you know that when I stick my money in the pot it is with a premium hand. (Unless I am on tilt…I think the last time that occurred was 20 years ago)
For those of you that are having any concerns about the way, MLB is going so far. There is nothing unusual or unexpected in this season. The 0-9 start was startling but certainly nothing to talk about in the way of bad beats. When you lose 12 months in a row for -80 units and have stayed solid without wavering from your positive EV routine, then you can discuss bad beats!
Even then it is the variance at work if you are a positive EV player. I read an article the other day that came to the conclusion that in a lifetime of poker play in a certain % of the population of winning players their good play will not get them into positive results.
That article got my attention in that I have always been of the opinion that a number of hands you get in playing poker lifetime is so small you are really at the mercy of variance. That is why I started steering away from mixed games where it is even slower and you have to sit out 2 hands per round if they are playing triple draw games.
The house vig will eat ou up and typically when it is all said and done gets 80% of the money availalbe.
I do not know how I got off on this tangeant this morning but it does explain the reality of gambling from the perspective of sample size and variance.
Good Luck Today
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks