What is the effect of Variance and Sample Size in poker and sports betting???

On Monday we had 2 1/2 unit plays and they both lost.

Pitt +210 lost 1-12 and Miami +105 lost 4-9.

There was only 1 big move game and it predicted the move by .05.

Big move games right now are the stellar performer both from the standpoint of predicting the line moves but also if you wagered on each one you would have made 130 wagers and find yourself +8.04 units.

These would be wagers based upon my models without any other considerations. I do not recommend that but so far these have been at the top in what I put out for MLB.

So far today I have sent out a 1 unit play in MLB and 3 Big line Move games.

Did I say  MLB was a grind:) Those that were with me last season for the entire season know exactly what I am talking about. Last season the profit we made was the last 2 to 3 weeks of the season.

I have been asked again about the 1/2 unit plays. Have faith:) I do not make changes randomly. If any of you have played poker with me you know that when I stick my money in the pot it is with a premium hand. (Unless I am on tilt…I think the last time that occurred was 20 years ago)

For those of you that are having any concerns about the way, MLB is going so far. There is nothing unusual or unexpected in this season. The 0-9 start was startling but certainly nothing to talk about in the way of bad beats. When you lose 12 months in a row for -80 units and have stayed solid without wavering from your positive EV routine, then you can discuss bad beats!

Even then it is the variance at work if you are a positive EV player. I read an article the other day that came to the conclusion that in a lifetime of poker play in a certain % of the population of winning players their good play will not get them into positive results.

That article got my attention in that I have always been of the opinion that a number of hands you get in playing poker lifetime is so small you are really at the mercy of variance. That is why I started steering away from mixed games where it is even slower and you have to sit out 2 hands per round if they are playing triple draw games.

The house vig will eat ou up and typically when it is all said and done gets 80% of the money availalbe.

I do not know how I got off on this tangeant this morning but it does explain the reality of gambling from the perspective of sample size and variance.

Good Luck Today


RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

Leave a Comment

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

Contact Us

We're not around right now. But you can send us an email and we'll get back to you, asap.

Not readable? Change text. captcha txt
Rickj's Handicapping Picks
Sign up now for our  newsletter. Includes handicapping tips

MLB has now entered the 3rd month of the season!  Results posted.

RickJ's Handicapping Picks  The latest in positive EV handicapping Techniques Overnight Plays in MLB are sent out around 3 to 4 PM PST the day before Come join us for a fun and profitable Pro Sports season!!!  
Sign up now for the service. Its free until NCAA FB starts. 

Positive EV Handicapping

Do you know the important clues that help determine which side has +EV?
  • Learn about Reverse Line Moves and how they apply to each sport
  • Learn about being a contrarian and using public % numbers to get an edge
  • Learn about the seasons within a season that all sports have
  • Learn key numbers in all sports

Sign up to get updates that will help you with your sports handicapping!