Since its a pretty light day today I want to get caught up on some emails and comments:
1. “rick thanks again for responding to me couple quick questions if you have time
1) you said the other day that you have been busy with college totals in bball that you only have a few seconds to put in are you posting those totals?
(I don’t post my total plays because no one can get near the numbers I get…you have to be ready to make your wager as soon as the lines come out..within seconds that number is no longer available.)
2) the line moves quick after you post your plays which is why i have it set to my twitter to my phone to my alerts, is that line moving just on you alone? or is there other betting syndicates using the same data you get and putting the bets in at teh same hour and minute you are? i know alot of people follow you religiously and i am wondering if there is enough volume from just everyone following you to move a line
( My plays are posted before the syndicates put out their steam. Usually Their plays come out at two times….around 8 or so am pst and around 3 to 3:30 pm pst. The moves you see are most likely because my posting these picks)
3) do you know anything of this collusion that goes on in the 30/60 holdem @ bellagio? my friend told me to not play that game when i was last out there beacuse of it….
(I have been playing at the bellagio for about 10 years now on and have not seen many instances of any sophisticated collusion at the table. Unless the players are very adept at it….its very easy to spot. My guess is its so infrequent not to be a factor.
thanks again for your dedication and taking time to answer peoples questions, “
Good luck in getting back on track in the contests. Quick question, how does one differentiate between “public steam” and “smart money”? Thanks “
Probably the most reliable indicator of where the “smart money” is going is to take a look at the public numbers on sportsinsights. As an example: The giants this weekend have 64% of the public betting on them. The line however has moved from -7.5 to -7(opposite the public) This would be an indication that perhaps some “smart money” is coming in on the redskins.
I have found this indicator to be reliable enough to take it into consideration in all sports. But as with most indicators…..its only 1 of many you need to consider to find postive ev. That alone will not get you there.
3. “Hey Rick
I was wondering if there were any respected handicappers that implement parlays or teasers? I know they’re typically sucker bets but I know someone that has had success with parlays over the last two seasons in football (small sample size I know) “
My response: I dont bet parlays or teasers. My thoughts are that you are giving my too much juice. Now I have know some good handicappers that bet teasers…but they are only betting a few setups that they have found profitable over the years.
I am not the one to ask since I dont bet them or ever look them over.
4. “Rick – do you think its fair to say that on college hoops the ratio between professional/informed money and public money is much more biased towards the pros than it is in the other sports – and this is why in order to try and beat the sport that you have to produce your own lines and play accordingly when there is a decent disparity between the lines and your numbers? “
My response: Yes I would mostly likely think that is the case. Since there are so many teams the public really doesnt get involved except in very high profile games. Its not like the Nfl where the public bets the games as though its a feeding frenzy. That why I think the nfl is the most predictable sport to handicap. In no other sport do you have the public leading the way to the right side as you do in the Nfl. Saying that…over the last few years the books have adjusted a bit for the fact that their are many more bettors out there that recognize it and take advantage of it.