Is there any EV in betting when and if the Health Care bill will pass the Senate? Of course there is:)

Wednesday turned out to be another busy day for MLB plays with 6 plays and going 2-4 for less than a half unit loss for the day.

We had a 1 unit play on St Louis +125 winning 4-3, and a half unit play on the White Sox +107 losing 3-12. Then we also had 4 overnights:  Pitt -134 won 6-2, Texas +107 lost 3-5, Cubs +158 lost 4-8 and Detroit -135 lost 2-8.

Today so far I have sent out 3 plays.

I have been keeping a watch on the new political lines that come out and there are a few that look outstanding to me.

You can lay 2/1 on the Senate not passing a health care bill by July 31st. That looks to have some equity to me.

Also, the odds are 66% that the GOP will hold less than 225 seats after the midterm elections or over 90% that they will lose seats at midterms.

I would think to be able to take 2/1 on the GOP having over 225 seats in the house after midterms would have a lot of equity. They would have to lose over 22 seats.

I find the odds slanted substantially in favor of the Democrats so that if you’re betting on them in almost any race your taking way the worst of the real line.

Very similar to the Georgia special election odds.

The Senate is not so slanted. For 52 seats or less its about 53%. But then again 50 50 on the GOP gaining seats to me looks like a reasonable +ev wager.

Now, these opinions are in no way my personal opinion of what I would like to happen. They are merely my observation of where I feel there is value. I like to think I have the ability to not be swayed by any personal bias I might have:)

I will keep a watch on new lines opening up. One that I am interested in is the over-under on the date Wray gets approved as head of the FBI. My thinking as I said before is that it will be strung out even longer than many of the others.

The last thing many in Congress wants is an independent tough head of the FBI. It would turn out to be potentially catastrophic for some in Congress both Democrat and Republican.

Good Luck Today


RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

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