The Fed lowers rates 1/4% and the Dow drops about 300 pts. Good news is bad news for the markets. A Tell? Its at least a red flag.
How the markets react on news is one of the keys to evaluating the short term moves in the markets.
This morning we find ourselves just slightly higher premarket, with @CL -2.42%, TLT +.35% and Vix.x -5%
A mixed bag, but Vix.x is on the move to the upside, Watch this to see if we head lower. If Vix.x turns positive, we might be in for another leg lower.
Which leads me to mean reversion. Another leg lower will get me interested in some mean reversion trades.
I am out of most of my swings on this leg lower. You make profits on the upswings, and take your stops on the downswings. That is how swing trading works.
I do not have much in the way of a basket of quotes to trade this morning. A few names, but they would need to trigger. My remaining metal trade will most likely be stopped out this morning with a 1.5% gain.
On the political front not much new. Same dysfunctional BS. If you are online and see the political comments you can see how crazy people are getting. There is no reasoning. Its pure partisanship.
A good example is the new Ca bill requiring the President to produce 5 years of tax returns before he gets on the primary ballot. To me, as an outsider, this is clearly unconstitutional. But I doubt you will find on liberal online that will not defend the move.
So how do you reconcile this in your own mind, since none of us are constitutional law experts? I would head to Turley and Dershowitz for starters. Usually, their analysis is pretty good. I have not seen anything on the subject written by them. But I am sure there will be something soon.
Both are moderates, both are Democrats, both are highly ethical, and both are the leading experts on constitutional law.
On the geopolitical front nothing has changed, its a mess. I suspect at some point there will be a defining moment that will tell us how the wind will blow.
As to sports handicapping, the NFL preseason starts today:) After grinding out baseball for 5 months, Football is always welcome. I am going to have a special this NFL season. I am still working on the details. But I will have something out this week.
As a part of my sports handicapping subscription, I send out almost all of my trades via Viber. This has been a nice value-added feature of the handicapping service. At $49.00 a month for all sports plays I handicap, you get most of my stock trades. With the NFL almost here, its time to consider joining us.
If you want to follow some of my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. Typically I talk about the overall day expected with the markets and also give some levels on the ES and NQ for failed breakout scalping.
It’s my private twitter feed for the stock market and its free.
Sports Handicapping is the subscription-based part of this site. But considering the cost of joining it’s almost free:)
Good Luck Today
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks