Well the worst week of the year turned into one of the best weeks thanks to the fed talking tough but then keeping rates steady. Expect more of the same going into the December meeting. Unless the Fed is in the mood to start a recession rates will not be raised in December.
There is just too much of a headwind around the world for economies to flourish. Severe regulatory practice by many governments, tourism plummeting due to terrorism and the uncertainty of refugee settlement, political unrest here at home resulting in boycotts of business’s and even states, and finally a record amount of people out of the workforce all bodes for low rates for a long time to come.
Rather then address the above problems that are creating this headwind the governments are keeping rates low to nonexistent flooding money into the worldwide system. Its a testament to the severity of the headwinds that inflation has not skyrocketed.
Let me mention I am in no way making a political statement! I am an independent who is issue driven. I only comment upon events to the extent of how they have the potential to effect the markets.
So long term where do we go from here? Its anyones guess. You can find discussions supporting any thought you might have. The trick is to find someone nonpolitical and who is also an expert to figure out what is coming and perhaps when. My suggestion is to read dashofinsight.com each week for an objective update. Its the best free market analysis you will find to give you a perspective on the issues and how they have the potential to effect the markets.
Let me also mention that except for a few time tested patterns market timing is extremely difficult. Not many can get it right and even the ones that do can be off by months.
There are also several paid sites that are excellent in this regard. I am hesitant to put them out as I do not like to tout sites that charge for their services. However this site I am going to mention is priced very reasonable for the analysis provided.
I have no interest in the site and get no money for referrals although I did email Cam asking if he provided a commission(could not help myself):) . His response was he is actually more interested in providing content to hedge funds and money managers then to get into the retail end.
So its a testament of my opinion of his content that even after I was turned down for a commission I am still providing this site as the best value I have found for staying up on the markets.
In the markets this morning we are slightly down which is a bit different than the last 4 days where we gapped up. The market has quickly gotten overbought but not in an area I would even think about shorting.
Today depending on the first 15 to 30 min I will consider taking BO trades long. These have been working very well for me. I am now flat. The two medium term reversal trades I made have been exited. I am alway looking for more of these trades but they do not come along very often.
If you want to follow some of my trades along with my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. It’s my private twitter feed for the stock market and its free. Sports Handicapping is the subscription-based part of this site. But considering the cost of joining it’s almost free:)
Good Luck Today
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks