An email regarding NBA Totals:
“I’ve noticed you don’t ever bet NBA totals. Is the edge just not really there? I know NBA totals are pretty popular for many handicappers.
NBA Totals suffers from the same difficulties trying to handicap the NBA Sides. A small number of teams combined with low volume of wagering. To get the point I am making the extreme would be 2 teams playing every day for 4 months and trying to get an edge betting the games:) So you go from the NBA at one end to College hoops at the other. Now NFL is a quite a bit different in that the public makes up an enormous amount of the people that bet the NFL. NFL is the sport everyone waits for and everyone bets! So the enormous volume of betting and public interest makes up for the small number of teams that plays.
With that backdrop you can see that the way I handicap would make deciphering the NBA a difficult task whether it would be the side or the totals. Over the years my handicapping in the NBA has turned from a crap shoot to a positive ev. But I have a very tight selection process. Coming to the totals its very similar. Due to time constraints I have not put in the effort on NBA Totals that I have put into sides. But its top on my list of areas to start covering in more depth. Its no small task to attempt to put together using a systems approach a positive ev method for NBA Totals.
I did it about 5 years ago and actually had a very good run at it. But it required so much work that I decided to put it aside and have never gotten back to it. I can tell you the public numbers have to be viewed in an entirely different manner then sides and totals in other sports. At one point however I had several top handicappers betting 5,000 a game on my NBA totals!
I am going to move it up to the top of the list now that you have reminded me:)
Things have slowed up today with futures only trading today until 10:00. On Sunday there were no plays but we did have a setup in the NHL on Vancouver +156. We won the game 2-1 in OT. Vancouver lead 1-0 until 50 seconds left in regulation when the Islanders tied the game. But you know things are going right when after a late score putting the team into OT Vancouver still wins! Similar but not as extreme as Green Bay covering instead of tying.
So +1.56 units on Sunday for NHL Setups. When I say I tightened up the setups take heed. I have been doing this a long time and adjusting to changing circumstances is one of my areas of expertise:)
I will save the market comments until tomorrow morning. But at glance there appears to be a change in sentiment from panic to at least hope! We will see.
I want to thank everyone that responded to my call out to promote this site and my twitter feed rickjsportplays. I noticed immediately a substantial increase the last two days in views and emails. Lets continue this! I can only do so much in promoting my site not only from the standpoint of time but also online marketing is something I have not read much about. So any help and suggestions will be appreciated.
Today will be another quiet day but looking over the games today there are a few that have the potential to turn into plays by game time. In addition I will be looking over the NFL and as soon as I finish I will share my thoughts on the games with subscribers.
I will be around all morning working on some new handicapping data I just purchased and in addition getting ready for tomorrows stock market. So now is a great time for questions from anyone. I can take questions this morning not only from subscribers but all that have an interest in handicapping or really this morning anything in general. I am in a talkative mood:)
Subscribers plays and setups as always will be sent out shortly before game times.
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