Saturday was a busy day with plays as we had 6 plays spread out over 3 sports. In college hoops we went 3-1 and continue our flirtation of breaking the 60% barrier again with a win rate of 59.60% on 151 plays for the season. Not many can do that year in and year out:) Our winning plays were on Marquette +12, Kansas St +4.5 and Notre Dame +2.5 We lost with Depaul +11.5. 2 of our plays were against the #1 and #2 teams in college hoops and not only did we cover fading the top 2 teams but we won both outright! In the NHL we lost with Minn +120 and in the NBA we lost with Detroit +4.5.
Now on to the good stuff. The Superbowl. The game where sports bettors all over the world line up at the sports books to make wager 10x their usually betting size to satisfy there primal urges to gamble. Well if you must do that let me try to give you some type of framework to consider before you spend your hard earned money on one NFL Game:)
Here is how I look at the game and decide what I want to do (either wager or not wager)
1. I take a look at the numbers to see if there are any clues as to where the right side might be on the game
A. Clue 1: 65% of the betting is on Carolina on massive betting volume. That is a pretty high number for the Superbowl. Typically my rule is if that if its 2 to 1 on a side of the game I really want to avoid being on that side. The higher the ratio the more I want to avoid the side. For instance New England Denver was 3 to 1.
B. Clue 2: The next thing I look at is what has the line been doing in relation to the % number. The two books I tend to look at for this is Pinnacle and Cris. On Pinnacle the line opened at -3.5 -105 and is now -5+100. On Cris -4-116 and is now -5.5-105. So the line has moved with the betting but not over any key numbers.
C. Clue 3: How high has the line been before game time. I like to take a look at this as it gives me an idea where the “sharps” are jumping into the betting. In this instance they did not start getting involved until a few days ago where there were as many +6 as +5.5. You can see its even more prevalent on Pinnacle where you can Lay the five even money.
D. Clue 4: What do my models tell me. My models say the line should be a tad under +3. That seems reasonable and falls in line with my view that typically when the betting % gets in the 2 to 1 area not only do the books shade the opener but they do not mind moving it with the betting at least until the “Sharps” start pounding the game.
E.Clue 5: What do I hear from the sports betting crowd. Almost without exception Carolina is a cinch to win the game easily. However the sentiment is not as vocal as it was in the New England Denver game. If you said you said you liked Denver against New England you risked having to fight someone:) This game is not quite in that category but you do get a mixed reaction anywhere from silence to laughter. That is still a very good sign if your betting on Denver.
F: Clue 6: What angles are there that are reliable on the game. Now do not think for a second I am going to disclose any angles I use for handicapping. What most people do not know is the angles handicappers use and have accumulated over the years is a secret they will guard with their lives! It takes a massive amount of time and energy to accumulate angles that are reliable. But let me say this is the only one of the clues I consider that does not point strongly one way or another. There are very good angles on both sides and I would be stretching it to say they lean to one side or another. I give this clue a tossup.
Now you might ask where is my matchup analysis between Peyton Manning and Cam Newton? Or where is my analysis of yards rushing and passing? For me analyzing those “fundamental variables” are time wasters. In my years of handicapping I have maybe knows 2 or 3 handicappers that were successful handicapping based upon matchups. And they all included some of the analysis above in conjunction with there max up skills. But I can tell you that 99% of handicappers that attempt to handicap a game using match up numbers will be unsuccessful. More often then not the conclusion you reach based upon that type of analysis is the wrong one unless you take the other side!
The books have the top experts in the business helping them put out these lines. They know where the value is and they know what the public is going to do with the line before they put it out. There is no fundamental stat that they do not take into consideration in putting out the lines. So why waste your time going over something where you have virtually no chance of gaining the edge.
Now back to my opinion. First I am not going to bet the game. I need almost everything to match up before I place money on a side. The lack of a strong angle edge precludes me from betting the game. At least according to the rule based betting procedure I use. But if your going to bet the game the only side that has value is Denver. There is no value on Carolina. And if your wondering why just reread clues A through G!
But remember this is sports betting and on any given day any side can cover the spread. These lines are never that far off. But my analysis comes into play on the assumption that if you were to make 10,000 wagers under these circumstances you would be on the plus side. An analogy would be finding someone to give you 6 to 5 on a coin flip. Your going to get all the money eventually but you might lose a few coin flips:)
For subscribers I am around all day for questions about the game. And also I will be sending out plays in college hoops, NBA and NHL shortly before game times. If your not a subscriber then join us. Its only a small month subscription. Just hit the paypal button on the upper right. Hope to see you join our group.
Good Luck Today which ever way you go on the game.
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